leafs picks for NYR picks
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06-07-2011, 07:28 PM
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Take a Wild Guess
Originally Posted by
Obviously a #15 has a higher chance of making it than a #25. But the logic would be this - what would have better odds of giving us the player that we want:
#15 or #25 AND #29 together.
Let's say we take two players of similar potential, but at #15, the odds are 20% he makes it whereas at #25 it's only 15% and at #29 it's 12%. Guess what, the two lower picks combined have higher odds. Not saying this is how it always works, but I'm just trying to say that sometimes, even though the higher pick alone has a better chance, getting two lower picks combined gives us better odds than just the higher pick.
In a weak draft, there **can be** such a huge gap between top 10-15 (just an example) and top 25 players that the difference can be an order of magnitude.
I am not saying I know for sure where that drop off occurs nor how steep. If I did I would be in a front office somewhere. But from all that I am reading it is definitely in the top half that talent falls off the cliff.
I think your example works better in a draft where the falloff is flattish. I see your point and I think we agree more than you think. I suppose we are arguing semantics as I think the dropoff is steeper.
Look I would love to have a draft where the Rangers picked up 10 good prospects to cram into the system. In my opinion in this type of draft, I would take 1-2 quality prospects over a shotgun approach.
**where I edited**
Last edited by Miamipuck: 06-07-2011 at
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