Thread: Proposal: leafs picks for NYR picks
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06-08-2011, 10:08 AM
Leslie Treff
Hockey's Future Staff
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: New Jersey
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Originally Posted by RangerEsq View Post
Let's say we take two players of similar potential, but at #15, the odds are 20% he makes it whereas at #25 it's only 15% and at #29 it's 12%. Guess what, the two lower picks combined have higher odds. Not saying this is how it always works, but I'm just trying to say that sometimes, even though the higher pick alone has a better chance, getting two lower picks combined gives us better odds than just the higher pick.
Just a heads up that statistically this does not work. To show you why, lets say you have two players picked, numbers 3 and 4. Just for our purposes (in other words, for example), let's say that statistically, players chosen three and four have a 50% of making the NHL. By choosing both 3 and 4, you do not have a 100% chance that one of the two of them will make it to the NHL. What you have are two players with a 50% chance, and a 75% chance that at least one will make it. You don't add the two to make the total. If you need me to show you graphically how this works, I will.

Last edited by Leslie Treff: 06-08-2011 at 10:17 AM.
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