Are the Habs better than the Canucks?
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06-14-2011, 03:54 PM
Join Date: Jan 2010
Originally Posted by
Talks to Goalposts
That's actually pretty easy to give a ballpark answer to mathematically.
Oilers allowed 3.17 goals on 31.7 shots per game last year. Therefore had a team save percentage of .900.
Best save percentage in the league was Boston with 2.30 goals against on 32.7 shots per game resulting in a team SVP% of .930.
If the Oilers had the Bruins save percentage then they would have allowed 31.7*(1-.930)= 2.22 goals against average. Oilers scored 2.33 goals per game this year so would have had a goal differential of (2.33-2.22)*82 = 9.02. So a +9 goals differential.
Worst goal differentials to make the playoffs in the West were Anahiem with +4 and Phoenix with +5. Best not to make the playoffs Calgary +13 and St. Louis +6. So Edmonton would probably be in the hunt with a +9 but not a sure bet.
So a theoretical Edmonton with Boston's goaltending goes from being the worst team in the league by a very strong margin (6 standing points and -15 goals differential from 2nd worst Colorado) to playoff bubble team. This should go to show just how dependant Boston is on getting ridiculous goaltending to be where they are right now. Essentially they are a slightly above average team with a fantastic netminder.
In case you were wondering how Edmonton would do with Montreal's goaltending by this measure. Habs goaltending was 0.918 this season. Edmonton ends up with -22 and is about as good as Minnesota was at 12th in the west.
Rest easy, if the Habs were a terrible team only carried by goaltending they'd be outside the playoffs with Toronto and New Jersey. As they are they are good enough with Price to be 6th in the East despite their many misfortunes this season.
All this proves is that the matrix you're using to determine this isn't one bit accurate. Edmonton was terrible, because they were terrible. Boston did better than edmonton because they're a superior team on every level.
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