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06-14-2011, 07:35 PM
  #83
Ohashi_Jouzu
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Join Date: Apr 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
Like I said its a ball park estimate. It ignores a number of established statistical realities like score effects and special teams time. It also ignores some unestablished ones like the effect of defensive skill on save percentage. There is also the luck factor of where goals end up getting distributed resulting in wins and losses
Actually, it ignores the actual important factors like Edmonton being a young and inexperienced team that isn't quite used to doing all the right things at the right time without having to take time to think about it first. I enjoy my stats as much as the next guy, and everyone knows it. But even I have my limits of how much stats geek nonsense I'll accept as explaining "effects" on anything. Stats describe what happened, not why. And patterns in stats allow us to make guesses as to what might happen next... but not why. I've learned to separate stats from "why", and I think there are lots of other folks out there who fancy themselves intellectuals who would be well advised to do the same.

/rant over

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