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06-14-2011, 10:15 PM
Miller Time
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Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
Those stuff kinda do show up in things like shots against you know as I said. It doesn't control for things no one knows like how much of an effect team defense has on save percentage. But this is simply a ballpark estimate to answer a point raised earlier in the thread.

All what I'm talking to comes down to Q: How good would the worst team in the league be if they switched to the best goaltending in the league A: As far as I'm willing to guess; about average, maybe in the playoffs, maybe not. Which given the history of ridiculous goaltending performances on bad teams, is an entirely reasonable answer.

The numbers just help us describe things that it would be way to hard to do otherwise. Of course its flawed and of course there are so many things that would change it in real life. But this is the kind of thing that lets you get a handle on what your talking about beyond "that guy over there is doing pretty good, eh?"
i don't know if the stats tell you anything relevant in this case...

as good as the top goalies in the league are, it's all about their mental state in any given season. Let's not forget that last year Thomas sat on the bench (rightfully so) and watched Rask lead the bruins into the playoffs.
Thomas isn't a "better" goalie today than he was a year ago, it's just the nature of the beast.

adding an elite goalie to the Oilers could go either way... the team could've gained confidence early on b/c said goalie stole a game or two, and rode that confidence into the playoffs...
or just as feasibly, the pourous play of the team in front of him could've killed the goalies confidence and reduced him to sub-par performances, leaving the team no better off than they were..

or anywhere in between.

there isn't a stat-package on earth complete enough to give any accurate insight into this kind of dilema. confidence, momentum, attitude, these are all intangible factors that, try as we might, we can't reduce to simple numbers.

in sports, especially team sports, there are so many variables, that it's impossible to know how changing one might impact the whole.

as much as "we" tend to glamorize (and vilify) the individual performance/person, fact is that any given game, series, season, is a cluster**** of random occurences, each of which contributing to unpredicatable outcomes culminating in one deciding game/series... after which, all of the talking heads look back and deduce an "obvious" explanation for why it played out the way it did... pure B.S... human need to explain the unexplainable.

bottom line is that human "success" and "achievement" is far more indebt to their circumstances/environment than it is to their innate skills or ability.

Thomas, Price, Rinne, Luongo... anyone of them could have "led" the oilers to the playoffs, but not anymore so than a timely goal to win a game sometime before hope was lost, or an injury for them that didn't happen or for an opponent that did happen...

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