View Single Post
Old
06-15-2011, 12:55 PM
  #105
Lafleurs Guy
Registered User
 
Lafleurs Guy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 17,746
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Top half? I'd be honestly surprised if the Habs aren't. They'd only need to add 12 goals. They've certainly generated enough chances this year that they should've been.
And that's the problem. We've always been great at 'generating chances' but we can't finish. It's been that way forever. As for us being top half, I'll believe it when I see it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
You're focussing on the very superficial "results" and completely (and I'm tempted to say willfully) ignoring the process that led to the results, how the process changed, and what it means for the future. The process has a lot more predictive value than the result.

I also think you've got a skewed idea of exactly how "good" the rosters of other teams are and what constitutes, say, an "average" set of forwards, but that's a common malady.
You focus on things like Corsi and to you it's the be all and end all. Gomez has great Corsi numbers? Geez, I guess he'll be great. Must be a fluke that he's not producing.

Sorry man, but at the end of the day you have to look beyond those obscure stats that you're using. You're doing what you're accusing me of... looking at superficial stats to justify the less than stellar results that we've been getting. And if it was just one year, again I'd say sure... maybe you're right. But that hasn't been the case. We've always had problems scoring goals.

As for other teams and what 'average constitutes'... I think you get hung up on this as well. Superstar forwards make a huge difference. I'd rather have a couple of superstar forwards and a mediocre group of forwards than a group of above average forwards. Superstars are the difference makers and they tend to elevate the play of those around them. We don't have this and it's why we don't win.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
I also think you need to do some research on hockey Sabremetrics rather than dismiss it out of hand because you don't think the game works that way. Right now you're sounding like a baseball guy circa 1970.
Dude, I'm open minded enough to consider this. But nothing that you have shown me is convincing that Corsi is indicative of success. As for baseball, it is a statistical game that was made for mathematical analysis. That's why Sabremetrics was born for it. It already has tons of stats like BA, OBP and SLG. right from the get go. Hockey is a fluid game with a whole lot more non statistical variables to it. I'm not saying that it can't ever be analyzed but I am saying that there are far greater challenges to doing this and that nothing you've shown me so far indicates that there's anything out there at present time to prove otherwise.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
The Habs of previous years were utterly terribad 5-on-5. They were not this year. The fluke part is that this didn't translate into goals for.
I don't think it's a fluke. And the pattern that we've followed for years just reinforces this. Again, when the results don't match the stats that you want to look at you just dismiss the results... Sorry but there are more stats than Corsi to consider.

As for us being better 5 on 5, we were 26th in the league in this department. Sure the corsi numbers were better and I already told you I thought we looked better this season but we still sucked.

Lafleurs Guy is offline   Reply With Quote