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06-22-2011, 09:42 AM
  #66
Larry44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fauxflex View Post
And you never addressed my question that I asked (in so many words) twice now.

I'll repeat again:

Ok let's assume that in this year's performance, being an overager was a factor for Akeson. What about his prior few seasons, when he wasn't an overager? He still produced at a pretty high level (>ppg) and continued to progress every year. Doesn't that imply that he didn't just excel because of his overage status, that there's more to it than that?
If his prior stats and play were that impressive, someone might have taken the time to draft him, maybe?

The CHL is full of players who score bunches of goals in Jr but never manage it at the NHL level. Many end up being role players, like Ian Laperriere, who was a top scorer in the Q.

It's not just Akeson's totals in isolation, it's his two-way play, skating, etc. that are being compared with all the other players in his draft cohort.

It is true that gems sometimes slip through. Giroux didn't get drafted in the OHL, went to the Q, and starred - scoring 103 points as a 17 yr old (Krejci only had 81 points as a 19 yr old on that team). Akeson had 2 points as a 17 year old - they are really not good comparators:

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/p...php?pid=111604

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/p....php?pid=89489

Giroux ended up being a great player in the top prospect game, and then played for Canada in the Super Series (vs Russia and their goalie Bobrovsky) and WJC. He didn't come out of nowhere as 20 yr old late bloomer. He bloomed at 17 from a training camp QMJHL walk on to a potential NHL star.

We'll see how Akeson does at rookie camp, and then training camp. Will he be able to beat out all the guys ahead of him on the depth chart? It's up to him.

Based on other similar players like him, I don't think we can count on seeing him in a Flyer uniform, except for exhibition games, for a couple seasons after he's learned the pro game in the ECHL/AHL. Luke Pither is a good example, he's in the same boat and is a year ahead.

You wanted to use Giroux as an example, how about his teammate in Gatineau, Vyacheslave Trukhno.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/p....php?pid=80494

He scored 98 and 102 pts in Jr. (2nd to Claude in his second year)
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/l...032452007.html

After three years in the AHL, he ended up back in the ECHL this year. And he's 6'1" 197. He'll probably be back in Russia next year.

This career projection is far more common for guys like Akeson than NHL stardom.


Last edited by Larry44: 06-22-2011 at 09:54 AM.
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