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06-23-2011, 01:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Sting36e View Post
His analysis only works because of the incorrect analysis of 3-4 players PER draft, not 3-4 players in total
Let's say you are right. Let's add 3.5 players per draft. So instead of 5 out of 20 from 2005 to 2008, let's just say it's 5 out of 34 players, and let's assume that Cherry would have been a bust. I am assuming worst case scenario here for you.

That still means that the Rangers got 15% of all the good players instead of 3.33% (they are 1 out of 30 teams, which is 3.33%). It is still phenomenally better than expected.

It's not as if the team went 4% instead of 3.33%. The team went more than 4.5 times higher than the expected percentage.

Now let's consider who those 3-4 players per draft are. Who do you have in 2005? Or 2006? Rask? Varlamov? A few prospects who are in their mid-20s and still haven't made a mark on the NHL? Who are you kidding?

Your analysis is based on every prospect out there becoming a star or at least reaching their outmost, hyped-up potential. When did you EVER see that happen? Ever?

For every player that matures late like Sauer, there are 10 guys like Dube and Brendl who are seen as blue-chippers, only to turn into garbage. In fact, even a player who had a seemingly good rookie season is as likely to turn into Wolski as he is to turn into an elite star.

I've been following hockey for more than a quarter century. Every year I hear fans talk about how this year's crop will do this, that and the other. And then a couple of years later, most of these prospects become either busts or bottom feeders, with only a few elite players in the end. But by then, "prospect experts" move on to the new batch of prospects, once again with complete unreasonable expectations.

Sorry, kiddo, but all those great prospects from 2005 and 2006 who failed to leave a mark on the NHL will not all become stars. Will there be a Mike Sauer somewhere? Probably, but will there be someone who had a nice rookie season who will become Wolski? You bet your bottom dollar there will be!

Last edited by Beacon: 06-23-2011 at 01:19 PM.
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