Thread: Confirmed with Link: Stars sign Michael Ryder (2 years, $3.5M)
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07-02-2011, 08:39 AM
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What's interesting about Ryder is that if you look at his shooting percentage just from his first 5 seasons it's 12.6%, which is in line for a skilled goalscorer. But then the past 2 years where he's scored only 18 it's dipped below that number to 9.4% and 10.9% respectively. Now you hear about people projecting certain players to come back down to Earth who have an unsustainably high shooting percentages, well, the same applies in the other direction. I'd expect him to rise back to around the 12 and a half mark, which interestingly enough is also his career playoff shooting %, where everyone says he plays particularly well.

The second point is the disparity between his TOI in Boston and his likely TOI here. He only played an average of 15 minutes a game the past 2 years. Ribeiro, on the other hand, plays about 20 a night. That's a big difference. I won't say Ryder will match that, but you have to assume they'll be somewhat close, or at least closer.

So Ryder last year had 165 shots over 1,144 minutes. Now let's say next year that TOI number goes up to 1,500, barring injury. (I'm still being conservative here, Ribeiro played 1,637) That projects to ~215 total shots. Give him his previous shooting % on those and you're looking at a 27-28 goal season. And that's not even factoring the effect Ribeiro will have in terms of creating high-quality chances like we know he will, or the chemistry they had in Montreal.

30 goals is a realistic target.

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