: Prospect Info:
Rangers Prospect Poll: #6
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07-03-2011, 01:47 PM
Join Date: Mar 2004
Originally Posted by
Miller's floor is as a low-quality AHLer. Look at past years' picks around #15 - and this is a weak draft!
Miller has 50-50 odds of becoming a good third liner. He has maybe a 10% chance to be a good top-6 forward and a 40% chance that he will be a minor leaguer or 4th liner. And I am being generous here because I like the pick.
Statistically, a #15 in a weak draft has an 80% chance of being a bust or a crappy 4th liner.
Nobody wants to hear that on a prospects forum, but you cannot say that just because we want our prospects to succeed, they will.
80% of the draftees in the 10-20 range fail, especially in weak drafts. Now, if Miller has a good year, we should raise expectations... but not yet.
I agree with most of what you are saying. But I guess my question is how you determine who is the better prospect between two hypothetical players where one has a greater chance of being a bust than another...but the former is also more likely to become a top 6 guy.
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