The Canadiens Offensive Prospect Fallacy
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07-04-2011, 01:48 PM
Go Habs Go
Join Date: Mar 2002
Originally Posted by
The potential top 6 (draft year in brackets): Iíve represented our top 6 HF based prospects and left Eller and Desharnais as prospects since they havenít reached the Canadiens top 6 yet. prospects Lars Eller (2007), David Desharnais (undrafted; 2004), Danny Kristo (2008), Louis Leblanc (2009), Aaron Palushaj (2007), Alexander Avtsin (2009). Are any of these guys top end talent, maybe not, but they all have at least the potential to reach 2nd line status.
To wrap it all up nicely, we didnít draft star potential forwards because we donít need one yet. We have the majority of our top 6 locked in until 2014. By seasons end we should have a pretty good idea on the 2007 and 2008 classes (Palushaj, Eller, and Kristo.) Only 2 players from the 2004 draft took 6 seasons to make my criteria and one (Callahan) missed by only 1 pt and 2pts before making it. Only 1 player from the 05 draft took 5 years (DíAgostini). If Eller and Palushaj donít emerge this season as top six caliber players, and none of our lower ranked prospects take big steps forward, than look towards the 2012 draft for Habs brass to target forwards in the early rounds.
The goal for drafting canít be to replace players and prospects they currently have, itís to have players ready for when they leave. The Habs need to build an entire team, not just two lines.
Interesting post. I would agree that the goal for drafting can't be to replace players and prospects they currently have, although I would also say that I know from time to time teams will draft to replace player/prospects they currently have in terms of drafting for need.
It will be interesting to see what we get from guys like Pacioretty, Desharnais and Eller, who all seem to have the skills to become good NHLers in time. If Pacioretty can repeat the short term success he had with us last year, it would seem to be a safe bet that Eller at worst will be a solid hard working forward, and Desharnais just finds ways to put points on the board in any league. So right there they have some good looking young talent, granted there's going to be question marks but if they produce like many think they can the Habs should be in decent shape assuming they can get some help here or there.
Additional prospects like Leblanc, Kristo, Bournival, Palushaj, Gallagher, Avtsin, etc.... it would be great if two or three turned out to be solid NHLers in a couple years. I think highly of Kristo and Leblanc, will be shocked if they don't turn into at least decent NHLers but I expect them to both be very good. Granted it's hard to say until we see them at the pro level. I know that many were not happy with the season Kristo had, but really it was more a case of him being in a slump the 1st half of the season. He had 5 pts in the first 17 games, the next 17 games which includes returning from a 2 month absence due to the foot injury in the middle of the playoffs and then the frozen four toury against the NCAA's best teams where he had 23 pts in those 17 games. For Kristo he was never really playing badly, he just couldn't buy a goal. I think that after the good freshman year he had he was keyed on more in his 2nd year and it forced him to overthink things as it seemed like his shots were getting blocked way more then usual or he was shooting wide a lot in prime scoring areas.
Kristo is being named as an early favorite to be among the top 10 players in the NCAA next year by INCH mag (college hockey mag). In addition he improved on his weaker areas like his defensive zone play and using his teammates better. It's going to be interesting to see what he does this year now that he'll be an upperclassman and likely his last in the NCAA, he could be a nice addition to Hamilton in time for the playoffs if North Dakota doesn't repeat last years successful run to the Final Fours.
I'm suprised at how down many people seem to be on Leblanc's offensive skills. Personally I think he's a lot more skilled then some thing but for me the real test is seeing them in the AHL and how their game translates. It sucks that he had to have major shoulder injury but hopefully he can put on some pounds and has a big year in Hamilton.
After that we'll see what the Habs have. Can Palushaj be a full timer in the NHL? I think he can, hope to see him get stronger, I think he could play on the 3rd line in the NHL as he has some sandpaper to his game and he's good at setting plays up, wants the puck in big game situations as well.
Avtsin is an interesting case, he's got the size and has shown he's got some flash at times with his hands. Can't wait to see how much he can improve off last season as he was a disappointment for me as he was really raw in his play without the puck much like Kostitsyn was when he was a 19 year old in Hamilton I would say Kostitsyn was worse looking but showed better improvement as the season went on as Avtsin didn't get better as season wore on. Still if he can improve his play without the puck, he certainly has some interesting things to work with.
Gallagher I can't wait to see him in the AHL after next season. I have only seen him once in a full game, but the numbers he's put up a impressive and he seems willing to pay the price to make the play which should go a long way for his future imo.
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