The Canadiens Offensive Prospect Fallacy
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07-04-2011, 02:52 PM
Join Date: Feb 2009
Originally Posted by
Kristo has another year at college first. Remember McDonagh? He had a mediocre 2nd and 3rd year in University, then suddenly a very good fourth year, and was in the NHL less than 12 months later.
I'm not saying Kristo is a sure thing. However, saying he is almost out of time is very, very premature. When did Cammalleri, who went the US college route, first become a top-6 forward? Wasn't it 25 years old?
Cammy had 4 development years. Drafted 2001 put up 55pts in 80 games in 2005-06. That said, he had 15 pts in 31 games in the 03-04 season. Probably safe to assume he would have been a top 6 forward 04/05 were it not for the lockout. 109 pts in 79 games in the AHL. Would put him at 23 if my math is good. Probably 22 if not for the lockout.
Kristo is currently 21. Going into his 4th development year since his draft. In the 2005 draft, only 1 player put up a .5 ppg pace for the first time 5 seasons after being drafted. Would hardly write him off yet, but statistically speaking, most impact players are making their mark by year 4, second most is year 3. Very few after that.
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