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07-07-2011, 01:02 PM
Can't Beat Him
nyr2k2's Avatar
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Washington, DC
Country: United States
Posts: 24,604
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Posted this in two other threads, and no one bit, so I'll try for a third time (LOL):

Shooting percentage is a stat that tends to stay relatively constant from season to season for each particular player. If a guy has an abnormally high shooting percentage one year, you can reasonably expect it to regress to the mean the next year. The same holds true for the opposite: an extremely low shot percentage will likely increase to a more normal level.

Last season, Avery shot a horrific 2.2%. Now, has his shot magically disappeared? It was never great to begin with, but it looked pretty much the same as it always did, to me at least. Prior to last season, his shooting percentage was about 8.3%. Had he scored on 8.3% of his shots last year, he would have scored 11 goals--giving him 32 points in 72 games, which is not bad for a guy playing a hair over 11 minutes per night.

If he reverts to his career norm (which is more likely than not), it would be a nice bonus for the team.


That said, I see no room for him past this year.

Originally Posted by wolfgaze View Post
The issue is that Avery has never been a 1st line player for any team. His shooting percentage has declined drastically over the last 3 seasons... It was at 2-3% last season.... That's not a player you want playing with your best playmaker on your top line...
No it hasn't. It was 8.1% in 08-09 and 7.9% in 09-10, right at his career average. Last season was attrocious, yes, but there's no pattern to be seen.


It's just pain.
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