: Prospect Info:
Odds of NHL success by height - UPDATED WITH SECOND ROUNDERS TOO
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07-08-2011, 12:58 PM
Sent to HF Minors
Join Date: May 2007
1. I am lying in a hammock in the Caribbean after jet skiing for an hour, so trust me, I'm really, really not bitter or upset right now.
2. If you want me to change my standard, I will be glad to do so. Pick any other set of years (at least half a dozen so that the sample is large enough), any reasonable height cutoff and any reasonable scoring expectation.
The reason I picked 0.5 points per game is that our poll on this forum said that a second liner should get at least 40 points. If you want, I can make it 35 points or 50 points. Same with height. I picked 6'3 as tall because the Tall Men's Society makes that the cutoff. And I picked 5'10 on the other side because that means that the player is in the bottom 50-percentile of all Americana men. I can make it 5'11 and 6'2 or whatever you wish.
3. I will do the same analysis for round 2 later tonight. I don't know this for sure, but my guess is that a short second rounder has a better chance of becoming an NHL scorer than a first round big guy who did not go in the top few lottery picks.
But obviously a big guy is much more likely to become a grinder like Boyle or Rupp than a small guy does. All in all, a big guy has a better shot of making the NHL, but a far, far worse shot of becoming a scorer.
Before Getzlaf in 2003, the last big North American guy drafted #8 to #30 who went on to become a decent scorer was Bertuzzi in 1993. That's 10 years! And along with Bertuzzi there were 5 big guys who were drafted in the first round and then went bust.
Last edited by Beacon: 07-08-2011 at
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