Jair Jurrjens is MVP material
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07-10-2011, 11:12 PM
grit those teeth
Join Date: Nov 2008
Originally Posted by
The skill of the defense is only one aspect. I would say, based on what I've seen and the stats, that the Phillies and Braves are a push defensively.
The real issue with ERA is that once the ball leaves the pitchers hand, the resultant outcome is beyond his control. The difference between a routine ground ball out and a seeing-eye single may be no more than inches, and once there is a man on base, anything can happen.
Here's an example.
Pitcher A has two outs and the bases are empty. Pitcher A makes a good pitch, which the batter hits on the ground toward the gap between the SS and the 3B. Fortunately for pitcher A, his 3B was shaded close enough that he was able to field the ball and throw out the runner at first. Inning over.
Pitcher B has two outs and the bases are empty. Pitcher B makes a good pitch, which the batter hits on the ground toward the gap between the SS and the 3B. Unfortunately for pitcher B, his 3B was shaded toward the line rendering him unable to make the play. Now there is a man on. Pitcher B still has the chance pitch his way out of the jam, but as you can see, he is in the jam in the first place because of something that was beyond his control. This is the inherent problem with ERA.
You can refer to this as whatever you'd like. Luck, randomness, whatever. The point is, once the pitcher makes his pitch, there are numerous things that can occur for which he has no control.
This is not a problem for DIPS.
that makes sense i guess. it does make a huge difference having players as good defensively as mcclouth, schafer, and gonzalez, not to mention a lot of jurrjens' starts were with david ross as catcher, and it's really, really hard to steal a base against ross.
To some degree, I suppose. The point is to create better statistics by mitigating the effects of luck to the greatest extent. ERA is better than Wins and it's certainly better than having no metric at all, but there are stats that are better than ERA, hence why I pay little attention to it.
also makes sense. i guess i'm just old school
CBP is definitely a hitter's park, while Turner Field is a bit of a pitcher's park. Turner field looks like it inflates triples, especially for left handers, but that's about it.
funny, it always seemed like it was a lot harder for the outfielders to cover all the ground and aloud for a lot more bloop singles at the ted but i guess not
Because he hasn't. A pitcher's job is to prevent runs from being scored, but he does that by making pitches that the batter is either unable to hit or unable to make good contact with. Roy Halladay has done the best job at putting batters in a position to make outs. What happens once the ball is in play is not up to him.
i guess it seems like a pitcher can still be good even if his style of pitching involves him having confidence that his defense won't screw up (which wasn't always jair's style, he used to be much more of a power pitcher and you can see how he has improved since he changed) but i can understand if you see differently.
Strikeouts have a higher value than any other possible out because they don't put the ball in play, thus removing the possibility that the defense makes a mistake, the batter gets lucky or the runner beats the throw.
also makes sense
FIP: ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP-IBB))-(2*K))/IP + X. The X is simply a number that correlates FIP to an ERA scale to make it easier to understand.
xFIP is calculated the same way FIP is calculated except xFIP assumes a 10.6% HR/FB rate for all pitchers. Here's an explanation for why:
The other two major stats, tRA and SIERA, are calculated with similar formulas
interesting. obviously punishes you for walks (which would help jurrjens) and rewards strikeouts (which would really hurt jurrjens).
the only problem with this is just how much emphasis it places on strikeouts. i understand the reason for this, but it would make guys like greg maddux and tom glavine look like just really good pitchers instead of the sure fire hall of famers they are. i'd like it better if it was 1.5*k instead of 2 but i understand why it isn't.
Team defense ratings would typically be based on UZR. UZR is the best defensive metric there is, but it isn't perfect and it only goes back about a decade, making it impossible to use retroactively. Here's an explanation of how UZR is calculated:
yeah i know UZR is really useful for determining the true defensive worth of a player (much better than just errors) but it isn't involved with any of the adjusted pitching stats, right?
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