Cup droughts: a statistical analysis
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07-12-2011, 01:21 PM
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Watching the game!
Well, I did say this was pointless, right there in the first line...
More seriously, Teufelsdreck, you bring up a good point that I hadn't made forcefully enough in the initial post because I didn't realize it was needed: this means absolutely nothing as a predictive tool, and even less now in the post-cap era.
Neither the Habs, the Leafs or any other teams are "due" a Cup because they haven't won one in a long time. That's the kind of fallacy that makes you lose all your money at the casino.
Other much more established posters have already come to the defense of my post much better than I could so I'll just add this, which is a bit of a tangent, being my opinion rather than fact-based, but still: in my opinion, dynasties went out the window with expansion and the introduction of the 1-8 format for playoffs, and the cap slammed the door shut. In the long term, unless something happens to skew the playing field again, even the best managed and most profitable teams will have, in the long run (say, a couple of centuries) a 1/20 Cup-per-season played ratio or thereabouts.
A Cup run just depends on too many variables (a healthy team at the right time, a hot goalie, etc.) for any team to win Cups more reliably. So, let's cherish the memories of the Cups we did have, because there's no telling what the future holds.
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