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07-12-2011, 04:43 PM
Czech Your Math
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Originally Posted by jags6868 View Post
We're being unrealistic and crazy to think Jagr can still score 100 Pts.
I think it's a bit unrealistic to expect him to score 100+ points. Sure, he can, but that's not probable. Even if he played with Crosby and/or Malkin, it would be in the upper range of his possible production.

Still, it does seem like many are underestimating his abilities, even as he approaches age 40. Those thinking he will score less than 50 points (if healthy) must not have much respect for him, because there's no way he's coming back to the NHL after a three year absence to score 50 points or less.

Things to remember when assessing his upcoming season:

- He's never scored less than 57 points in 17 NHL seasons, and that was an 18 y/o rookie with very limited playing time. Aside from that his low seasons were 69 in his second season and 71 in his last season three years ago.

- His KHL production did not suffer a significant decline during his three seasons in Omsk.

- He scored 71 points in his previous NHL season, while playing with a center (Gomez) that didn't mesh well with his style before ending up on a line with a promising rookie (Dubinsky) and an old friend (Straka) who was only staying in the NHL to play with Jagr.

- This is the first time he's actually been able to choose the NHL team for which he will play. Again, I don't think he's coming back to the NHL after three years to choose to embarrass himself.

- Other great players of similar age (late 30's or older) and somewhat similar ability have put up very good seasons recently:

Lidstrom has averaged 60 points from age 37-40, including 62 last season.

Sakic hit 87 and 100 points at ages 36/37 and had 52 points in 59 games during his last two injury-filled campaigns at ages 38/39.

Gretzky scored 97, 90 and 62 points at ages 36-38 with a bad back.

Selanne was 35 before playing a game after the lockout and has scored 389 points in 380 games at ages 35-40, including 80 points in 73 games last season.

Lemieux scored 153 points in 127 games from ages 36-40, which doesn't include his marvelous 2001 season with Jagr.

Messier scored (or was on pace for) 60+ points from ages 37-40.

Oates scored 82 and 78 points at ages 38/39.

Other examples of players scoring at a 60+ point pace for more than one season in their late 30's include Alfredsson, Francis, Hull, Shanahan, Recchi and Brind'Amour.

Realistically, barring significant injury, I would expect:

Minimum of 60 points. Anything less and he probably leaves the NHL for good, except possibly to give it one last run on a team he thinks has a very good chance at a Cup. I would expect something in the range of 20-25 goals and 65-75 points. If he's healthy (not just playing every game... he will play thru most injuries) and has great chemistry with his linemates from the start, then who knows, 30 goals and 90 points are not impossible. Much more than that in such a competitive and low-scoring league would be truly incredible from a player who has been out of the league for three seasons and will turn 40 during this season while playing with new teammates.

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