Trading Draft Picks/Draft Success
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07-13-2011, 12:54 AM
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Victoria BC
Much has been made in this forum about our ability to draft and trading away draft picks. I had some time to kill.
I decided to do a bit of research. I used the draft years 1984-2006. Looking at each round I counted how many NHL players played a significant amount of games, using 300 as the benchmark. The number is low, but by playing that many NHL games it showed the player was not a fringe or replacement player but capable of making the team. I started in 84 cause it was a great draft for us. I only went to 2006, because after this year too many players are still developing and the numbers don't work. Furthermore, I lowered the qualifying number by 25 each year after 2000 to allow for development.
I'm no statistician and I'm sure there are flaws but...
League wide these are the percentage of players per round who met the criteria, opposed to our success rate per round based on the same parameters. I limited it to 7 rounds as opposed to 12 rounds that were drafted in 1984. The percentages are not demonstrably different after rd 7 anyways.
This may be hard to read... sorry can't be bothered to fix formatting.
Rd 1 0.59 0.43
Rd 2 0.28 0.39
Rd 3 0.18 0.26
Rd 4 0.13 0.30
Rd 5 0.08 0.04
Rd 6 0.11 0.09
Rd 7 0.09 0.04
So basically we don't do well in round 1 compared to the rest of the league, not surprising considering that we've only had a few top 10 picks during this time. We excel in rounds 2, 3, 4 and are basically even in the later rounds.
So... for us trading a 1st round pick doesn't appear to be a particularly disastrous proposition. In fact it may be beneficial, because we're likely to receive a definite nhl player for that pick which has a less than .5 chance to make the league.
Also trading late picks means virtually nothing for the NHL team. The vast majority of players picked after rd one are organizational players who'll be on the farm. Necessary but not earth shattering.
Feel free to flame me and correct the work, but only if you do the work.
Last edited by habfaninvictoria: 07-13-2011 at
. Reason: apology for formatting.
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