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07-22-2011, 10:12 AM
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Yes, yes it is, given the amount of variability in hockey. I don't think people quite grasp how relatively small a sample a single season represents.

What are you basing your confidence interval on?

In any case, my point is that this is one of those one-in-twenty occurences. 95% seems like a lot, but it means that you will, on average, have a bit more than one player having such a season any given NHL club.

Gomez fell off the left side on the bell curve on on-ice shooting percentage. These things happen. Rarely, but they do.
1*sqrt(42) gives you the 68% confidence interval.
2*sqrt(42) gives you the 95% confidence interval.

But really I disagree with the small sample argument. I don't think Gomez's problems were statistical flukes, I think they were systematic:

1) Injuries to Markov, Pacioretty.
2) He didn't click with AK46
3) Some have suggested that he gained weight, I don't know if this is true.

You make a good point at the end, 95% chance means you expect one such player per season, since there are 23 guys on the roster. However, I don't think chance is such a big role in the meaning we're using for chance here, as there so many other types of chance things: offseason training, injuries, chemistry, etc.

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