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07-22-2011, 10:52 AM
  #955
MathMan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
1*sqrt(42) gives you the 68% confidence interval.
2*sqrt(42) gives you the 95% confidence interval.
Err... I don't think it works like you think it does, but then I'm not sure what you think you're doing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
But really I disagree with the small sample argument. I don't think Gomez's problems were statistical flukes, I think they were systematic:
The problem is always the same -- it all comes down to the fact that his lack of scoring was due to on-ice shooting percentage, a value that has been shown to have little predictability and strong regression to the mean. If his possession game had declined, then the idea that he's got systematic issues would have more legs, but as it is, I'm just wondering what makes Gomez so special that he is unlike pretty much every other player before him who's run into a bad patch with the percentages.

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