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07-22-2011, 11:15 AM
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Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
Err... I don't think it works like you think it does, but then I'm not sure what you think you're doing.
How do you think it works assuming players are a valid statistical test (which in reality they're not).

I just assumed Poisson noise on points.

Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
The problem is always the same -- it all comes down to the fact that his lack of scoring was due to on-ice shooting percentage, a value that has been shown to have little predictability and strong regression to the mean. If his possession game had declined, then the idea that he's got systematic issues would have more legs, but as it is, I'm just wondering what makes Gomez so special that he is unlike pretty much every other player before him who's run into a bad patch with the percentages.
Can you give me some references to this work on shooting percentages?

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