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07-22-2011, 11:49 AM
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
How do you think it works assuming players are a valid statistical test (which in reality they're not).

I just assumed Poisson noise on points.
With p = points/games? And n = games?

That gives you a n under 100. That's really tiny. Not to mention that points/game is not a binary probability.

Actually it would seem to me that p = goals/shots would make more sense.

Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Can you give me some references to this work on shooting percentages?
Trying to find some, but most of the stats sites are either blogs or chart sites, and they don't have a convenient reference or indeed much of an index. And this is such a settled question that there's a cash prize contest for someone who can demonstrate that teams have a talent to influence shot quality:

This one is pretty good; it compares first half to the season to second half at the team level, but the same applies to individual players (especially their team's shooting percentage while they are on the ice):

I'll see if I can find more.

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