Thread: Jason Wilson
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07-22-2011, 11:20 PM
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Wilson is our hope for the next Dale Weise, though he's more likely to become Newbury or worse. A lot of people like younger prospects than those who are borderline ready because they can have unreasonable hope for the prospects they know less about, but Weise is superior to what Wilson will be when he catches up age-wise.

I am sure a lot of people will doubt it, but the truth is that as a 19 year old, Weise put up better stats than Wilson despite the fact that they are the same size and play a similar game. Then next year, Weise had a good season in the AHL, while Wilson was forced to return to juniors as an overager. No doubt people will try to find differences, but those differences always exist in two similar players.

Let me tell you this: Wilson returned to the juniors as an overager. How many good prospects do that? How often do you see overagers turn into quality NHLers?

A player who can play in the AHL goes there. In fact, usually if he can hold up on the ECHL's top two lines, he'll go to the ECHL and the team will hope that he'll progress enough in the season to get a call up to the AHL. This is particularly true for gritty guys who can play on any of the 4 lines, at least at the AHL level. A gritty guy who goes back for an overager season is usually garbage.

This is compounded by the fact that Wilson couldn't score in juniors even as an overager. Generally speaking half-way decent prospects who become overagers come to dominate the juniors. Again, this is particularly so for big guys because they can abuse the not-yet-developed 17-18 year olds due to the size advantage.

The additional experience, the additional training and the size advantage normally allows overagers to dominate.

Instead, Wilson had a pathetic 43 points on a strong team. The guy was #8 in scoring on his team as an overager.

Wilson has ECHL written all over him. Granted, stats don't prove everything, but if you can't score in juniors on a decent team as an overager, odds are you won't be able to score even in the AHL, much less the NHL.

Compare him to Chris Chappell, who is bigger. In his overager season Chappell scored almost double what Wilson scored. And yet, he wound up in the ECHL because that's where almost all overagers go. This isn't an exception I found, this is the rule. Immediately after his good overager season, Chappell failed to make our top-35 list, the longest list of prospects we ever voted on. Why? Because overagers dominating teenagers is nothing special. But overagers not being able to do so is a very bad sign.

If Wilson had some great intangibles that don't show up on the stat sheet, he would have played in the AHL last season.

The guy is garbage who is overrated because many people just like anyone big who hits.

Last edited by Beacon: 07-22-2011 at 11:39 PM.
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