MLD 2011 Draft Thread II
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07-31-2011, 03:08 PM
Join Date: Aug 2006
Originally Posted by
in addition, ES time is by far the most important situation. PP and PK time are probably more "concentrated" importance but because they account for about 20% of the game they are still less important overall.
Disagree entirely. PP and PK are a small part of the game, but are definitely more important than ES on a "per minute" basis.
Note that the correlation between a team's ES performance and their W/L record is very strong, and a correlation between PP and/or PK efficiency and W/L record barely exists.
Do you have a link to the studies that show this? I mean, it's not surprising that ES is more important overall since it's most of the game, but I'd imagine it's less important per minute.
So a coach's primary concern should be
"who do I use the most at ES?"
and then dole out the rest from there, i.e.
"I'm already playing this guy the most at ES, and he would be a decent PP performer. should I give him even more on the PP, or give it to Berard, who won't be exposed defensively and will be better-rested?"
- just as an example.
That's the complete opposite of what usually happens, IMO. Isn't the whole argument for someone like Vishnovsky or Yandle not getting the Norris last year that if he he was good enough to be on the PK, the coach would definitely put him there, since that's where a defenseman can make the most difference per minute?
Edit: But of course, who else you have on the team also affects it. If you have someone "almost as good" in one area but not the other, then the coach would adjust minutes according to need.
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