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08-07-2011, 10:35 PM
  #169
habsjunkie2*
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MathMan View Post
I think the problem people have with the microstat argument, ultimately, is that they're so married with the idea that Gomez must have done something wrong not to collect points (and that a player who doesn't get points is playing poorly) that they're effectively assuming that Gomez is a player gifted with a unique, special form of badness.

They're effectively arguing that he is somehow different from everyone who's gone through the same issue with percentages before him, in some unspecified but definite way. Because of that specialness, his scoring chances and the shots his teammates make while he's on the ice are somehow inherently worse than when he's not, in some vague manner for which there is no evidence except one: the notion that they didn't result in goals because they were low quality shots, and you know they were low-quality they didn't result in goals. Pretty circular.

They're also saying that Gomez is bad in such a special fashion that he's not going to be subject to regression to the mean the way every other player who's had a season like him has been in the past.

I just don't think, personally, that Gomez is that special. Oh, of course, it's not altogether impossible that he is such an incredibly unique player, but it's like (to reuse that example used earlier) finding a planet with life on it.
I can't think of too many form 1st line players that had a 7goal 38 point year because of bad luck. He might be on the list by himself. I think he's declining, we'll see what next year brings.

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