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08-12-2011, 11:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
What was his average yards per rush? Because your counter example *ing blows. Your comparing gross totals v. averages.
Haha. Dude seriously? My counter example blows, but your roll of the die comparison is just fine?

You also completely missed the point. The point was that when we're talking about sports one season out of 5 can completely be an outlier. It doesn't matter if we're talking totals or averages. So if I said he had 4 seasons of a 3.3 ypc, and 1 of a 4.7 ypc that would have been all fine and dandy? Its the same damn thing, the numbers don't matter. The point is 1 out of 5 in sports can totally be an outlier.

Moreover, we're not talking about 1/4 are we. As noted, we're talking about 2 of the last three years, in fact.... and, as you yourself admitted, numbers that are noisy. The reality is that Howard has a couple of years with insane variance the last few years, and a few that are pretty normal.
No, I was originally talking about his averages for the past 4.5 seasons. Which ALL lend themselves to the idea that his numbers are significantly depressed by the shift.

....the 1B position isn't the *ing shift dude. I've already noted that a BIG part of it has nothing to do with the shift, and everything to do with the 1B. The shift impacting Howard is the 2B in short RF.
No its not the whole shift but its part of the defensive alignment that changes when a man is on first, which is what I said. I never said it was "the shift." I also said some other things that you for some reason ignored.

You tend to do that a lot when we get into a discussion. You eventually start ignoring the crux of my argument and focus on minute things that you can either twist, or counter. Which winds up taking the discussion so far off topic and into a battle of semantics where we're arguing what the definition of "is" is. No one on here wants to read that crap.

Like for instance, you for some reason completely ignored my entire point on Utley.

Or this, which was actually the main point of what I was saying, but you somehow just took the 1b alignment part of it out:

"Regardless, Howard's BABIP from 2007-Present with no one on is .285

With a man on 2nd is .321, same as with a man on 1st.

With RISP its .351"

So having a guy on 2nd or RISP hugely affects the shift, and I showed you Howard's numbers increase in those situations. Yet, you completely ignore that.

See, I address every point you make when we get into these discussions, but you tend to start leaving out a lot of mine.

Well, because it is.

And, I think it's an abnormally high number and an indication that he's been a bit lucky. Last year it was .340, year before that .308. He's a career .340 BABIP with RISP.
Yes, and from 2007 to now, the time which the shift has been regularly employed against him, his BABIP with RISP is .351 and .285 with no one on. Am I going to just keep repeating this? Do you think that doesn't matter? Because it seems to me that you said it mattered but yet you're still arguing with me.

In fact, what are you even arguing? Do you actually have a point because I haven't seen one. All I've seen is you try to dump on, and refute everything I've said for no apparent reason. It really looks like you don't have an actually point to your arguments other then to prove me wrong. In which case, I'm wasting my time responding to you.

Let me make it perfectly clear. I think the shift significantly decreases Howard's numbers, and his numbers with men on base compared to his numbers with bases empty, from the time opponents started to shift him, show that.

What do you think?

Last edited by Protest: 08-13-2011 at 12:12 AM.
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