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08-22-2011, 07:31 PM
#183
plusandminus
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Below is an example to illustrate the principle of looking at every single game to determine ES contributions. Everything in the table is ES only. 2002-03 season.

x=without player. tot (or t)=with player+without player
W D L = won draw loss
Pts=Pts, win=2, draw=1, loss=0
I need to keep table names short. Ask if unclear.

I think only games where the player were on the ice on a goal (no matter what type of goal) are counted. The missing games are all 0-0 for the player.
(Better would be to include all the games the player participated in, but unfortunately that informations seems to be depleted because of a disk crash several years ago.)

Just an example.

 Team Pos Name Game +/- x+/- Pts xPts totPts Pts-x tot-x W D L xW xD xL tW tD tL COL C PETER FORSBERG 68 55 1 97 61 91 36 30 40 17 11 21 19 28 39 13 16 COL R MILAN HEJDUK 73 49 -1 98 72 94 26 22 37 24 12 27 18 28 41 12 20 LA R ZIGMUND PALFFY 71 24 -26 86 53 71 33 18 30 26 15 17 19 35 25 21 25 DAL R JERE LEHTINEN 64 33 21 89 72 86 17 14 34 21 9 27 18 19 34 18 12 DAL D DERIAN HATCHER 75 27 27 90 85 99 5 14 36 18 21 32 21 22 40 19 16 TB R MARTIN ST. LOUIS 70 7 -19 78 54 67 24 13 29 20 21 16 22 32 25 17 28 COL L ALEX TANGUAY 69 38 10 88 76 89 12 13 35 18 16 31 14 24 38 13 18 DET D NICKLAS LIDSTROM 80 36 2 95 84 97 11 13 37 21 22 31 22 27 40 17 23 NJ R JAMIE LANGENBRUNNER 59 16 14 66 62 75 4 13 25 16 18 22 18 19 32 11 16
Forsberg was +55 during ES, without him Colorado was +1 during ES. Forsberg was 40-11-17 (W-L-D) during ES. That would have resulted in 97 pts in 68 games. It seems he (and his units) helped getting Colorado 30 more "ES points" (91 instead of 61). Again, everything is ES only, and only games where player where on the ice on a goal is counted.

Sorted another way, it would look like:

 Team Pos Name Game +/- x+/- Pts xPts totPts Pts-x tot-x W D L xW xD xL totW totD totL CBJ R DAVID VYBORNY 59 15 -63 71 32 37 39 5 24 23 12 9 14 36 14 9 36 COL C PETER FORSBERG 68 55 1 97 61 91 36 30 40 17 11 21 19 28 39 13 16 LA R ZIGMUND PALFFY 71 24 -26 86 53 71 33 18 30 26 15 17 19 35 25 21 25 CAR D SEAN HILL 66 5 -44 69 42 52 27 10 22 25 19 11 20 35 20 12 34 COL R MILAN HEJDUK 73 49 -1 98 72 94 26 22 37 24 12 27 18 28 41 12 20 MTL D ANDREI MARKOV 71 18 -23 88 62 66 26 4 32 24 15 20 22 29 25 16 30 TB R MARTIN ST. LOUIS 70 7 -19 78 54 67 24 13 29 20 21 16 22 32 25 17 28 CBJ L GEOFF SANDERSON 71 -1 -56 70 47 42 23 -5 20 30 21 13 21 37 14 14 43 LA L ALEXANDER FROLOV 58 16 -16 69 48 59 21 11 28 13 17 19 10 29 22 15 21 TB C VACLAV PROSPAL 70 7 -21 81 60 67 21 7 27 27 16 16 28 26 25 17 28

The difference between Vyborny on the ice, and Vyborny off the ice, is hugh. +15 with, -63 without. With him, 71 points in 59 games, without him only 32 points in 59 games. His contributions however only helped Columbus get 5 more points more than if he had been +/- 0 in every game. Same data and limitations as above.

Just an example. Just intended as something to add to the debate.
I know important stats are missing for older data. Again, just an example.

Pts, xPts and totPts can be used to tell us about pts per game:
 Team Pos Name Game ES+/- xES+/- Pts xPts totPts Pts-xPts totPts-xPts ATL C KAMIL PIROS 2 4 -2 2.000 0.000 1.500 2.000 1.500 WAS D MICHAEL FARRELL 1 1 -1 2.000 0.000 1.000 2.000 1.000 NAS D TOMAS KLOUCEK 1 1 -1 2.000 0.000 1.000 2.000 1.000 VAN R PAT KAVANAGH 2 2 -2 2.000 0.000 1.000 2.000 1.000

I personally find totals more useful.

Results does seem more useful if for example only taking those with minimum of 41 games:
 Team Pos Name Game ES+/- xES+/- Pts xPts totPts Pts-xPts totPts-xPts COL C PETER FORSBERG 68 55 1 1.426 0.897 1.338 0.529 0.441 COL R MILAN HEJDUK 73 49 -1 1.342 0.986 1.288 0.356 0.301 LA R ZIGMUND PALFFY 71 24 -26 1.211 0.746 1.000 0.465 0.254 NJ R JAMIE LANGENBRUNNER 59 16 14 1.119 1.051 1.271 0.068 0.220 DAL R JERE LEHTINEN 64 33 21 1.391 1.125 1.344 0.266 0.219 PHO L LADISLAV NAGY 62 24 -10 1.210 0.952 1.145 0.258 0.194 LA L ALEXANDER FROLOV 58 16 -16 1.190 0.828 1.017 0.362 0.190 COL L ALEX TANGUAY 69 38 10 1.275 1.101 1.290 0.174 0.188 DAL D DERIAN HATCHER 75 27 27 1.200 1.133 1.320 0.067 0.187 STL R ERIC BOGUNIECKI 43 11 -10 1.186 0.721 0.907 0.465 0.186

I prefer the totals (first two tables in this post) more than the averages.

Perhaps, though, "Pts as a total" might be wisely combined with "xPts per game".

Dividing, or dividing with square root, would give:
 Team Pos Name Game ES+/- xES+/- Pts PtsG xPts totPts totPts2 totPts3 COL C PETER FORSBERG 68 55 1 97 1.426 0.897 1.338 108.13114 102.41445 LA R ZIGMUND PALFFY 71 24 -26 86 1.211 0.746 1.000 115.20754 99.538178 COL R MILAN HEJDUK 73 49 -1 98 1.342 0.986 1.288 99.361111 98.678208 CBJ R DAVID VYBORNY 59 15 -63 71 1.203 0.542 0.627 130.90625 96.407176 MTL D ANDREI MARKOV 71 18 -23 88 1.239 0.873 0.930 100.7741 94.170744 STL D AL MACINNIS 78 19 -3 92 1.179 0.962 1.038 95.680000 93.821959 DET D NICKLAS LIDSTROM 80 36 2 95 1.188 1.050 1.212 90.476190 92.710506 TB C BRAD RICHARDS 75 8 -17 82 1.093 0.840 0.973 97.619047 89.469334 STL D BARRET JACKMAN 74 17 -6 87 1.176 0.959 1.014 90.676056 88.819012 TB R MARTIN ST. LOUIS 70 7 -19 78 1.114 0.771 0.957 101.11111 88.806906 NYR C ERIC LINDROS 75 15 -3 87 1.160 0.960 1.053 90.625 88.794003 WAS D SERGEI GONCHAR 75 17 -5 86 1.147 0.960 1.040 89.583333 87.773382
TotPts2=Pts/(xPts/Games). TotPts3=Pts/sqrt(xPts/Games)

I'm not saying this last table above gives the best results, just that it uses another way of combining "with" and "without".

Maybe the results of the "win formula" and/or overpass' method would be fairly similar (or not).

I think this is an interesting way to look at things. I know one needs some data that are not available for "old" seasons, but still. And the results here may be compared to the other methods in this thread, to see how they correspond to each other.

Edit:
The above should basically work for all eras, no matter how high or low scoring. Only thing to adjust for would be GP per season (for teams, i.e. 82 nowadays, 80 during Gretzy's prime).
It should also take care of injuries. If a player misses a game, he simply gets 0 pts for that game. It should be very easy to aggregate different seasons to get career totals (if it wasn't for necessary data missing).

Last edited by plusandminus: 08-23-2011 at 07:47 AM. Reason: spelling