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08-22-2011, 07:31 PM
  #183
plusandminus
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Below is an example to illustrate the principle of looking at every single game to determine ES contributions. Everything in the table is ES only. 2002-03 season.

x=without player. tot (or t)=with player+without player
W D L = won draw loss
Pts=Pts, win=2, draw=1, loss=0
I need to keep table names short. Ask if unclear.

I think only games where the player were on the ice on a goal (no matter what type of goal) are counted. The missing games are all 0-0 for the player.
(Better would be to include all the games the player participated in, but unfortunately that informations seems to be depleted because of a disk crash several years ago.)

Just an example.

TeamPosNameGame+/-x+/-PtsxPtstotPtsPts-xtot-xWDLxWxDxLtWtDtL
COLCPETER FORSBERG 685519761913630401711211928391316
COLRMILAN HEJDUK 7349-19872942622372412271828411220
LA RZIGMUND PALFFY 7124-268653713318302615171935252125
DALRJERE LEHTINEN 643321897286171434219271819341812
DALDDERIAN HATCHER 752727908599514361821322122401916
TB RMARTIN ST. LOUIS 707-197854672413292021162232251728
COLLALEX TANGUAY 6938108876891213351816311424381318
DETDNICKLAS LIDSTROM 803629584971113372122312227401723
NJ RJAMIE LANGENBRUNNER 591614666275413251618221819321116
How to read the table:
Forsberg was +55 during ES, without him Colorado was +1 during ES. Forsberg was 40-11-17 (W-L-D) during ES. That would have resulted in 97 pts in 68 games. It seems he (and his units) helped getting Colorado 30 more "ES points" (91 instead of 61). Again, everything is ES only, and only games where player where on the ice on a goal is counted.

Sorted another way, it would look like:

TeamPosNameGame+/-x+/-PtsxPtstotPtsPts-xtot-xWDLxWxDxLtotWtotDtotL
CBJRDAVID VYBORNY 5915-637132373952423129143614936
COLCPETER FORSBERG 685519761913630401711211928391316
LA RZIGMUND PALFFY 7124-268653713318302615171935252125
CARDSEAN HILL 665-446942522710222519112035201234
COLRMILAN HEJDUK 7349-19872942622372412271828411220
MTLDANDREI MARKOV 7118-23886266264322415202229251630
TB RMARTIN ST. LOUIS 707-197854672413292021162232251728
CBJLGEOFF SANDERSON 71-1-5670474223-5203021132137141443
LA LALEXANDER FROLOV 5816-166948592111281317191029221521
TB CVACLAV PROSPAL 707-21816067217272716162826251728

The difference between Vyborny on the ice, and Vyborny off the ice, is hugh. +15 with, -63 without. With him, 71 points in 59 games, without him only 32 points in 59 games. His contributions however only helped Columbus get 5 more points more than if he had been +/- 0 in every game. Same data and limitations as above.

Just an example. Just intended as something to add to the debate.
I know important stats are missing for older data. Again, just an example.

Pts, xPts and totPts can be used to tell us about pts per game:
TeamPosNameGameES+/-xES+/-PtsxPtstotPtsPts-xPtstotPts-xPts
ATLCKAMIL PIROS 24-22.0000.0001.5002.0001.500
WASDMICHAEL FARRELL 11-12.0000.0001.0002.0001.000
NASDTOMAS KLOUCEK 11-12.0000.0001.0002.0001.000
VANRPAT KAVANAGH 22-22.0000.0001.0002.0001.000

I personally find totals more useful.

Results does seem more useful if for example only taking those with minimum of 41 games:
TeamPosNameGameES+/-xES+/-PtsxPtstotPtsPts-xPtstotPts-xPts
COLCPETER FORSBERG 685511.4260.8971.3380.5290.441
COLRMILAN HEJDUK 7349-11.3420.9861.2880.3560.301
LA RZIGMUND PALFFY 7124-261.2110.7461.0000.4650.254
NJ RJAMIE LANGENBRUNNER 5916141.1191.0511.2710.0680.220
DALRJERE LEHTINEN 6433211.3911.1251.3440.2660.219
PHOLLADISLAV NAGY 6224-101.2100.9521.1450.2580.194
LA LALEXANDER FROLOV 5816-161.1900.8281.0170.3620.190
COLLALEX TANGUAY 6938101.2751.1011.2900.1740.188
DALDDERIAN HATCHER 7527271.2001.1331.3200.0670.187
STLRERIC BOGUNIECKI 4311-101.1860.7210.9070.4650.186

I prefer the totals (first two tables in this post) more than the averages.

Perhaps, though, "Pts as a total" might be wisely combined with "xPts per game".

Dividing, or dividing with square root, would give:
TeamPosNameGameES+/-xES+/-PtsPtsGxPtstotPtstotPts2totPts3
COLCPETER FORSBERG 68551971.4260.8971.338108.13114102.41445
LA RZIGMUND PALFFY 7124-26861.2110.7461.000115.2075499.538178
COLRMILAN HEJDUK 7349-1981.3420.9861.28899.36111198.678208
CBJRDAVID VYBORNY 5915-63711.2030.5420.627130.9062596.407176
MTLDANDREI MARKOV 7118-23881.2390.8730.930100.774194.170744
STLDAL MACINNIS 7819-3921.1790.9621.03895.68000093.821959
DETDNICKLAS LIDSTROM 80362951.1881.0501.21290.47619092.710506
TB CBRAD RICHARDS 758-17821.0930.8400.97397.61904789.469334
STLDBARRET JACKMAN 7417-6871.1760.9591.01490.67605688.819012
TB RMARTIN ST. LOUIS 707-19781.1140.7710.957101.1111188.806906
NYRCERIC LINDROS 7515-3871.1600.9601.05390.62588.794003
WASDSERGEI GONCHAR 7517-5861.1470.9601.04089.58333387.773382
TotPts2=Pts/(xPts/Games). TotPts3=Pts/sqrt(xPts/Games)

I'm not saying this last table above gives the best results, just that it uses another way of combining "with" and "without".

Maybe the results of the "win formula" and/or overpass' method would be fairly similar (or not).

I think this is an interesting way to look at things. I know one needs some data that are not available for "old" seasons, but still. And the results here may be compared to the other methods in this thread, to see how they correspond to each other.


Edit:
The above should basically work for all eras, no matter how high or low scoring. Only thing to adjust for would be GP per season (for teams, i.e. 82 nowadays, 80 during Gretzy's prime).
It should also take care of injuries. If a player misses a game, he simply gets 0 pts for that game. It should be very easy to aggregate different seasons to get career totals (if it wasn't for necessary data missing).


Last edited by plusandminus: 08-23-2011 at 07:47 AM. Reason: spelling
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