View Single Post
08-23-2011, 02:46 PM
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 980
vCash: 500
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
I'm surprised CYM didn't mention/ask this, but... did you mean he had about 1.5 times the "average" player? or the average of his own team? there are only so many minutes to go around, and I find it unlikely that he would be that far off of his own team's average. If you compare him to another team, sure, his icetime figures would look wonky. but that's not what a model that uses GF & GA to calculate icetime does.
Thanks for asking. I compare only with his team's totals.

Below are what it looks like. I have only included players with GF+GA >= 20. (Expect even larger differences for the other players.)
I think the raw data I assembled and corrected should be near 100 % correct.
The rightmost column shows GF+GA per 60 minutes. I have divided all those values by league average, to make it easier to compare.

CARBRUNO ST. JACQUES D2970.0810.1380.057351.577
CHIBURKE HENRY D2500.0650.0940.029291.552
ATLILYA KOVALCHUK F11530.3050.3790.0741301.509
NYRREM MURRAY F3980.1050.1550.050441.479
EDMMIKE COMRIE F9100.2410.3280.0861001.470
CHIERIC DAZE F7220.1880.2570.070791.464
LA ADAM DEADMARSH F2650.0710.1060.035291.464
COLPETER FORSBERG F10910.2880.4190.1311191.459
BOSJOE THORNTON F12850.3400.4330.0931401.458
ATLKIRILL SAFRONOV D4140.1100.1310.022451.454
TORALEXANDER MOGILNY F9430.2580.3480.0901021.447
TORKAREL PILAR D2450.0670.0890.022261.420
BOSGLEN MURRAY F14000.3710.4580.0871481.414
ATLDANY HEATLEY F11640.3080.3590.0511231.414
NYIROMAN HAMRLIK D12810.3550.4600.1061341.400
PITMARIO LEMIEUX F10820.2860.3870.1011131.397
MTLNIKLAS SUNDSTROM F3840.0980.1290.031401.394
PHOLANDON WILSON F3280.0890.1250.036341.387
SJ NICHOLAS DIMITRAKOS F2440.0650.0890.023251.371
BOSMIKE KNUBLE F10610.2810.3340.0531081.362

WASBRIAN SUTHERBY F5540.1460.096-0.05270.652
PITIAN MORAN F10530.2780.175-0.10510.648
CGYSTEVE BEGIN F4360.1180.078-0.04210.644
STLTYSON NASH F5320.1420.087-0.05250.629
TORRICHARD JACKMAN D5350.1460.085-0.06250.625
FLAIGOR ULANOV D8230.2150.146-0.07380.618
MINJASON MARSHALL F4620.1190.084-0.04210.608
TB ALEXANDER SVITOV F5110.1320.083-0.05230.602
CARJAROSLAV SVOBODA F5490.1500.095-0.05240.585
TORPAUL HEALEY F4580.1250.068-0.06200.584
BUFVACLAV VARADA F5250.1390.082-0.06220.561
CGYSTEVE MONTADOR D6270.1700.096-0.07260.555
STLSHJON PODEIN F5400.1440.073-0.07210.520
COLSERGE AUBIN F7000.1850.095-0.09270.516
PITIAN MORAN D10530.2780.134-0.14390.496

Biggest differences between real ES%, and ES% estimated by GF+GA:
PITIAN MORAN D10530.2780.134-0.14390.496
COLPETER FORSBERG F10910.2880.4190.1311191.459
NYIMATTIAS TIMANDER D11590.3210.213-0.11620.716
NYIROMAN HAMRLIK D12810.3550.4600.1061341.400
PITMARIO LEMIEUX F10820.2860.3870.1011131.397
PHOOSSI VAANANEN D10560.2870.192-0.10520.659
PITIAN MORAN F10530.2780.175-0.10510.648
STLPAVOL DEMITRA F11510.3080.4060.0981161.348
TB VINCENT LECAVALIER F11340.2930.3900.0971081.274
BOSJOE THORNTON F12850.3400.4330.0931401.458
WASSERGEI GONCHAR D15840.4170.5090.0921431.208
TORALEXANDER MOGILNY F9430.2580.3480.0901021.447
CGYSTEPHANE YELLE F10540.2850.200-0.09540.686
COLSERGE AUBIN F7000.1850.095-0.09270.516
BOSGLEN MURRAY F14000.3710.4580.0871481.414
EDMMIKE COMRIE F9100.2410.3280.0861001.470
COLMILAN HEJDUK F12190.3220.4050.0831151.262
TB MARTIN ST. LOUIS F11230.2900.3720.0821031.227
FLAOLLI JOKINEN F11680.3050.3850.0801001.146
BOSSEAN O'DONNELL D11500.3050.229-0.08740.861
VANTODD BERTUZZI F12230.3340.4130.0791171.280
DETMATHIEU DANDENAULT D12030.3140.3920.0781221.357
PHOPAUL MARA D11290.3070.3840.0771041.233
FLAIVAN NOVOSELTSEV F9600.2500.3270.077851.185
MINMARIAN GABORIK F10780.2780.3550.077891.105
ATLILYA KOVALCHUK F11530.3050.3790.0741301.509

This makes, in my opinion, GF+GA a bit unreliable when using it to determine ice time. Maybe there are steps involved in the calculations that takes care of that, so that it really doesn't matter that much. But I felt a need to point it out.

Also, Kovalchuk is about the most extreme example of a "high risk, high reward" type player. Watching the guy play it is clear he is going to cause both more goals for and more goals against while on the ice. If there was ever a player who would be an outlier whose GF/GA figures might cause an estimation model to lie, it would be him. With that said, that's no reason to throw out such a model.
Agree about Kowalchuk. But there were lots of other players like him. And plenty of the opposite kind too, i.e. players with "low risk getting scored on, but also low risk for their opponents to be scored on".

I have an even more compelling reason to throw out the bottom player - any calculation done on him would be based on an obscenely low number of game situations. It's a poor sample size and is practically meaningless. Of course, if it got further in the season and he was 40-13, then we'd have something to talk about, and whether he was outperforming the 72-50 player would be a worthy question to ask.
I agree. Unfortunately, the lower numbers the more "extreme" results. And the higher numbers, the less "extreme" results. But problem is that that rule continues to be true even for high numbers. The 40-13 case will still be slightly more vulnerable than the 72-50 case (I think, but that case it might be negligable).

Anyway, I don't like dividing GF by GA, because to me it only makes sense when
GF+GA is equally big for every player.
(But maybe there is something built in in overpass' method, that takes care of that.)

I look at it like this:
A: Player being 40-20 actually helped his team improve by +20.
B: Player being 30-15 actually helped his team improve by +15.
Both have the same GF/GA (2.0). But I think what matters is GF-GA.
Let's say B was 30-12 instead, raising his GF/GA to 2.5. That may make him look like a better player when looking at GF/GA. But he would have helped his team improve by +18.
During the whole season, I think a player's goal is to help their team improve by as many goals as possible, by getting as good GF-GA as possible.

Last edited by plusandminus: 08-23-2011 at 03:21 PM.
plusandminus is offline   Reply With Quote