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08-23-2011, 06:17 PM
  #191
overpass
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plusandminus View Post
Sorry, but I'm still a bit confused.
The text says $ESGF and $ESGA are adjusted to 200 ESG scoring environment.
The $ prefix makes me think "adjusted to 200 ESG scoring environment".
The text says EV+/- is also adjusted to 200 ESG scoring environment. ?

If it had been named "$EV+/-", I would have been pretty sure it's $ESGF-$ESGA, because $ tells me that it's "adjusted to 200 ESG scoring environment".
My question is... Is EV+/- = $ESGF-$ESGA ?


The text also says:


"As given", does that mean they are not "adjusted to 200 ESG scoring environment"?
All numbers are adjusted to the 200 ESG per team-season scoring environment. Yes, EV+/- is simply $ESGF-$ESGA. "As given" still means scoring-adjusted numbers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by plusandminus View Post
Example, using made up seasonal stats for one player and his team.

Everything is ES only.
"without" or "w" means when player was off the ice.
GD (goal difference) = GF-GA.

Lge aver ESGF per team teamGD teamGF teamGA playerGD playerGF playerGA withoutGD withoutGF withoutGA pGF/pGA wGF/wGA  
100 +20 60 40 +10 24 14 +10 36 26 1.714 1.385 

Lge aver ESGF per team $teamGD $teamGF $teamGA $playerGD $playerGF $playerGA $withoutGD $withoutGF $withoutGA pGF/pGA wGF/wGA  
200 +40 120 80 +20 48 28 +20 72 52 1.714 1.385 

Are the $ values above true? Is that how the ""adjusted to 200 ESG scoring environment" values are calculated?
All correct. I don't scoring-level adjust the off-ice numbers, since I only use them to calculate a ratio, but if you did want to adjust for scoring level that would be correct.

Quote:
Originally Posted by plusandminus View Post
If the above is correct, then how do we use the different variables to calculate the missing columns?
R-On? R-Off?

Can someone write down the formula's for calculating the values, using the variables of the tables above?

And can we write "rOn" and "rOff" instead of "R-On" and "R-Off", to make it easier to understand the formulas? ("-" can otherwise be interpreted as a minus sign. But we don't take R minus On, and R minus Off, right? If, I'm even more confused.)
R-ON = $ESGF/$ESGA. For single seasons, multiple seasons, or careers.

R-OFF = (TeamESGF-PlayerESGF)/(TeamESGA-PlayerESGA) for a single season. For multiple seasons, take the sum of the XEV+/-, $ESGF, and $ESGA, and calculate by turning around the formula for XEV+/-

XEV+/- = ($ESGF+$ESGA)/(1+R-OFF^0.65)*R-OFF^0.65 - ($ESGF+$ESGA)/(1+R-OFF^0.65)

EV+/- = $ESGF - $ESGA

AEV+/- = (EV+/-) - (XEV+/-)

Quote:
Originally Posted by plusandminus View Post
I understand the regression thing. But I'm confused about other things, including what exactly to regress (I guess it's "wGF/wGA"). ? Is rOff = "wGF/wGA" regressed to even?

I think I need an example to understand.
Adjusted plus-minus applies the regression to the ratio rOff in the XEV calculation. It's simply rOff^0.65, which regresses rOff toward 1. If I understand your terms correctly, wGF/wGA = rOff as I present it. I have never presented the regressed rOff value alone.

Full example:

Player X has 60 ESGF, 45 ESGA. His team has 140 ESGF, 155 ESGA. League scoring level is 150 ESGA/team.

$ESGF = 60*200/150 = 80
$ESGA = 45*200/150 = 60

rOn = 60/45 = 1.33
rOff = (140-60)/(155-45) = 80/110 = 0.73

XEV+/- = (80+60)*(0.73^0.65)/(1+0.73^0.65) - (80+60)/(1+0.73^0.65)
= 140*0.81/1.81 - 140/1.81
= 63 - 77
= -14

EV+/- = 80 - 60 = 20

AEV+/- = 20 - 14 = 34


Last edited by overpass: 08-23-2011 at 11:10 PM.
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