Quote:
Originally Posted by plusandminus
Sorry, but I'm still a bit confused.
The text says $ESGF and $ESGA are adjusted to 200 ESG scoring environment.
The $ prefix makes me think "adjusted to 200 ESG scoring environment".
The text says EV+/ is also adjusted to 200 ESG scoring environment. ?
If it had been named "$EV+/", I would have been pretty sure it's $ESGF$ESGA, because $ tells me that it's "adjusted to 200 ESG scoring environment".
My question is... Is EV+/ = $ESGF$ESGA ?
The text also says:
"As given", does that mean they are not "adjusted to 200 ESG scoring environment"?

All numbers are adjusted to the 200 ESG per teamseason scoring environment. Yes, EV+/ is simply $ESGF$ESGA. "As given" still means scoringadjusted numbers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by plusandminus
Example, using made up seasonal stats for one player and his team.
Everything is ES only.
"without" or "w" means when player was off the ice.
GD (goal difference) = GFGA.
Lge aver ESGF per team  teamGD  teamGF  teamGA  playerGD  playerGF  playerGA  withoutGD  withoutGF  withoutGA  pGF/pGA  wGF/wGA   100  +20  60  40  +10  24  14  +10  36  26  1.714  1.385  
Lge aver ESGF per team  $teamGD  $teamGF  $teamGA  $playerGD  $playerGF  $playerGA  $withoutGD  $withoutGF  $withoutGA  pGF/pGA  wGF/wGA   200  +40  120  80  +20  48  28  +20  72  52  1.714  1.385  
Are the $ values above true? Is that how the ""adjusted to 200 ESG scoring environment" values are calculated?

All correct. I don't scoringlevel adjust the office numbers, since I only use them to calculate a ratio, but if you did want to adjust for scoring level that would be correct.
Quote:
Originally Posted by plusandminus
If the above is correct, then how do we use the different variables to calculate the missing columns?
ROn? ROff?
Can someone write down the formula's for calculating the values, using the variables of the tables above?
And can we write "rOn" and "rOff" instead of "ROn" and "ROff", to make it easier to understand the formulas? ("" can otherwise be interpreted as a minus sign. But we don't take R minus On, and R minus Off, right? If, I'm even more confused.)

RON = $ESGF/$ESGA. For single seasons, multiple seasons, or careers.
ROFF = (TeamESGFPlayerESGF)/(TeamESGAPlayerESGA) for a single season. For multiple seasons, take the sum of the XEV+/, $ESGF, and $ESGA, and calculate by turning around the formula for XEV+/
XEV+/ = ($ESGF+$ESGA)/(1+ROFF^0.65)*ROFF^0.65  ($ESGF+$ESGA)/(1+ROFF^0.65)
EV+/ = $ESGF  $ESGA
AEV+/ = (EV+/)  (XEV+/)
Quote:
Originally Posted by plusandminus
I understand the regression thing. But I'm confused about other things, including what exactly to regress (I guess it's "wGF/wGA"). ? Is rOff = "wGF/wGA" regressed to even?
I think I need an example to understand.

Adjusted plusminus applies the regression to the ratio rOff in the XEV calculation. It's simply rOff^0.65, which regresses rOff toward 1. If I understand your terms correctly, wGF/wGA = rOff as I present it. I have never presented the regressed rOff value alone.
Full example:
Player X has 60 ESGF, 45 ESGA. His team has 140 ESGF, 155 ESGA. League scoring level is 150 ESGA/team.
$ESGF = 60*200/150 = 80
$ESGA = 45*200/150 = 60
rOn = 60/45 = 1.33
rOff = (14060)/(15545) = 80/110 = 0.73
XEV+/ = (80+60)*(0.73^0.65)/(1+0.73^0.65)  (80+60)/(1+0.73^0.65)
= 140*0.81/1.81  140/1.81
= 63  77
= 14
EV+/ = 80  60 = 20
AEV+/ = 20  14 =
34