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08-24-2011, 01:42 PM
  #192
plusandminus
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Quote:
Originally Posted by overpass View Post
(Formulas.)
OK, I post my results for 2002-03 season using overpass' formulas. I have not adjusted to era, since I only look at one season. I used .65 as the "regress to even" number. Let me know if numbers are wrong. (Please don't overfocus on the number of decimals shown. I want them there for verifying purposes.)

Lowest expected +/-:
TeamPosNameTOIshare+/-+/- without playerrOnrOffexp+/-adj+/-
PITFMARIO LEMIEUX 0.2856-15-490.76560.5702-20.40625.4062
CBJDLUKE RICHARDSON 0.4065-26-410.67090.6204-20.3193-5.6806
CBJDJAROSLAV SPACEK 0.3544-19-480.72060.5966-19.45540.4554
ATLFDANY HEATLEY 0.3079-1-500.98390.6296-18.355217.3552
PITFALEXEI KOVALEV 0.2415-4-600.91490.5420-17.683113.6831
PITDDICK TARNSTROM 0.2631-7-570.86000.5547-17.598410.5984
CBJFDAVID VYBORNY 0.285915-821.51720.4810-17.043232.0432
CBJFGEOFF SANDERSON 0.2760-1-660.97670.5417-16.716315.7163
PITFMARTIN STRAKA 0.2428-6-580.87230.5573-16.525010.5250
CARDSEAN HILL 0.34405-541.14710.5385-14.491719.4917
(Comment: Dominated by Pittsburgh and Columbus players.)

Highest expected +/-:
TeamPosNameTOIshare+/-+/- without playerrOnrOffexp+/-adj+/-
COLFJOE SAKIC 0.22699451.25001.569611.7839-2.7839
PHIDERIC WEINRICH 0.358015301.37501.468811.80733.1926
PHIDKIM JOHNSSON 0.360516291.39021.460311.99964.0004
DALDRICHARD MATVICHUK 0.2767-5570.86111.802812.6784-17.6784
COLDROB BLAKE 0.365219351.45241.479513.04085.9591
DALDDERIAN HATCHER 0.414127251.58701.409813.228913.7710
VANDBRENT SOPEL 0.3782-10350.82461.486113.3167-23.3168
COLDADAM FOOTE 0.384227271.55101.409113.874713.1252
DALDSERGEI ZUBOV 0.381917351.40481.538514.04872.9512
COLFSTEVEN REINPRECHT 0.2496-9630.81251.940318.4572-27.4572
COLDGREG DE VRIES 0.405116381.27591.666721.7152-5.7152
Comment: Some Colorado, some Philadelphia, some Dallas.


Best adjusted +/-:
TeamPosNameTOIshare+/-+/- without playerrOnrOffexp+/-adj+/-
COLFPETER FORSBERG 0.288555-12.71880.9880-0.468855.4688
COLFMILAN HEJDUK 0.32234952.48481.06102.211946.7881
DETDNICKLAS LIDSTROM 0.38783611.75001.01120.479335.5207
LA FZIGMUND PALFFY 0.323524-281.63160.7228-10.512534.5125
PHOFLADISLAV NAGY 0.300225-261.89290.7593-7.230932.2309
COLFALEX TANGUAY 0.310438162.18751.19285.837232.1627
CBJFDAVID VYBORNY 0.285915-821.51720.4810-17.043232.0432
DALFJERE LEHTINEN 0.280333192.43481.22625.227827.7722
STLFERIC BOGUNIECKI 0.245324-101.88890.9083-2.438626.4385
BOSFMIKE KNUBLE 0.281122-111.51160.9027-3.593425.5934
PHOFDAYMOND LANGKOW 0.322519-201.55880.8039-6.160825.1607
MTLDANDREI MARKOV 0.340818-261.48650.7869-7.151825.1517

Comment: Similar to the method I used and posted yesterday (post #184). Forsberg atop here too. Hejduk higher, as is Tanguay, which I think is not so good. Lidstrom higher. Vyborny lower, I think he should be higher, as I think +15 with vs -82 "without" is a huge difference. Palffy, Lehtinen, Boguniecki on my list too.
Martin St Louis, who was high on my list(s), is missing here. He's 25th here. Perhaps it has to do with how he distributed his ESGF and ESGF game by game.


Best adjusted (if not "regressing R-Off to even"):
TeamPosNameTOIshare+/-+/- without playerrOnrOffexp+/-adj+/-
COLFPETER FORSBERG 0.288555-12.71880.9880-0.721255.7212
COLFMILAN HEJDUK 0.32234952.48481.06103.402345.5976
CBJFDAVID VYBORNY 0.285915-821.51720.4810-25.5812040.5812
LA FZIGMUND PALFFY 0.323524-281.63160.7228-16.091940.0919
PHOFLADISLAV NAGY 0.300225-261.89290.7593-11.084236.0842
DETDNICKLAS LIDSTROM 0.38783611.75001.01120.737435.26257
COLFALEX TANGUAY 0.310438162.18751.19288.967029.0330
MTLDANDREI MARKOV 0.340818-261.48650.7869-10.972428.9724
NYIDROMAN HAMRLIK 0.354816-151.27120.8256-12.802528.8025
PHOFDAYMOND LANGKOW 0.322519-201.55880.8039-9.456528.4565
STLFERIC BOGUNIECKI 0.245324-101.88890.9083-3.750027.7500
BOSFMIKE KNUBLE 0.281122-111.51160.9027-5.525627.5255
ATLFDANY HEATLEY 0.3079-1-500.98390.6296-27.954526.9545
CARDSEAN HILL 0.34405-541.14710.5385-21.900026.9000
TB DDAN BOYLE 0.360013-221.28890.7755-13.022926.0229

Comment: At first glance it looks "better", in that linemates appear a bit more separated. But experience has shown me that regressing "when player off the ice" to even usually gives better results. (By the way, 6 Europeans atop.)



Although I like to compare the results to "my" mentioned method (see post #184), my method is not perfect. I need to find a way to include games where the player played but wasn't on the ice on any ES goals either way. Plus think more about it. Good things with it are that it doesn't need to pay attention to ice time, and doesn't have to adjust to "different GPG in different eras".

Now that I may know how overpass have done the calculations, and have been able to (hopefully) reproduce the results, my impression is that overpass' technique gives good results considered how relatively simple it is.
By simple, I mean that it only depends on ESGF and ESGA (and adjustment for ESGF per season), and that basically the only "tricky" part was the formula to calculate the expected +/-. That formula seem to produce interestingly good results.
(I did however not understand how it was done until it was written down in detail.)

The things I "don't like" about it, may be mostly present when looking at single seasons. When aggregating seasons, it might become alright (as players will play on other lines, on teams differently strong, etc). That is also what overpass have said.

Thanks overpass for explaining more in detail. It currently seems as if most of my "suspicions" regarding your method may have been a bit overstated.

Hopefully I will be able to reproduce czechyourmath's method too... eventually.


Last edited by plusandminus: 08-26-2011 at 06:55 PM.
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