11/12 Eastern Conference Standings Predictions
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08-26-2011, 04:06 PM
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Houston, Tx
Originally Posted by
The problem with doing this is that goals & assists do not give you an entirely clear picture. The even-strength points from Richards and Carter will be hard to replace because they got those points playing against very good players.
Leino's "production" is easier to replace because he did it against weaker opposition and starting in the offensive zone more often, but Philly may not be able to have their 3rd line play in similar situations this year because of the lost of Richards & Carter.
Then you have to factor in the lower production you would expect from Giroux playing against better players (offset at least in part by expecting Giroux to continue to develop, which he should) and the drop in production from Briere going from extremely favourable circumstances to tougher circumstances.
The Flyers didn't go out and get exact replacements for Richards and Carter who played in similar circumstances in the past, so it's really hard to make a simple yet reasonable projection as to what will happen. When you look at the context behind the points of the players departing, players remaining, and player brought in it muddles things up a fair bit.
I agree its not perfect but I think it gives a solid indication of what they lost.
I'm on a computer, so I'll give it a whirl since everyone else who is bored, is too lazy.
Carter 36g 30a 66
Richards 23g 43a 66
Leino 19g 34a 53
78 goals, 107 assists 185 points
They had 259 goals last year, so they lost 30% of their production in goals.
Jakub Voracek 14g 32a 46
Wayne Simmonds 14g 16a 30
Jagomir Jagr 25g 40a 65
Braedenn Schenn 10g 20a 30 (I made these up based on his 8 game total)
63g 108a 171 points
I guess its not so bad. I don't see them finishing 2nd in the conference but I think they definitely fall somewhat.
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