11/12 Eastern Conference Standings Predictions
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08-26-2011, 06:04 PM
Join Date: Jul 2003
Originally Posted by
I agree its not perfect but I think it gives a solid indication of what they lost.
I'm on a computer, so I'll give it a whirl since everyone else who is bored, is too lazy.
Carter 36g 30a 66
Richards 23g 43a 66
Leino 19g 34a 53
78 goals, 107 assists 185 points
They had 259 goals last year, so they lost 30% of their production in goals.
Jakub Voracek 14g 32a 46
Wayne Simmonds 14g 16a 30
Jagomir Jagr 25g 40a 65
Braedenn Schenn 10g 20a 30 (I made these up based on his 8 game total)
63g 108a 171 points
I guess its not so bad. I don't see them finishing 2nd in the conference but I think they definitely fall somewhat.
So a 15-goal drop isn't a bad baseline.
Let's take that 15-goals and then let's consider the knock-on effects due to the changes in depth... I'm going to ignore the points to simplify things... even though I said earlier that simple= bad. So if you'll indulge me in my hypocrisy, taking a look at three players expected to take on bigger roles for the Flyers next season (Giroux, Briere, Hartnell). Wall of text to follow...
Giroux is going to basically go from 2nd-line opposition to 1st-line opposition at even-strength, which means it will be difficult for him to score d). Looking at his goals total I would guess a drop of about 5 goals from the more difficult opposition, though he may make some of that back in development. His shooting percentage last year was on the high-side as well, but that's another issue. Call it -2 goals for Giroux from the tougher opposition balanced out by him continuing to develop.
So Giroux in a tougher situation = -2 goals
Briere is where it's going to really hurt the Flyers (unless Schenn is ready to handle 2nd-line opposition, which seems unlikely). He was in the perfect offensive situation last year and put up 28 even-strength goals playing largely against what would be classified as 3rd-line opposition. I'm personally expecting his goals/assists to drop massively (up to 10G and 10A) from the more difficult opposition He'll also be 34 at the start of the season which won't help.
For Briere, I'm going to go with -9 goals. You may make I'm crazy, but -7 to -14 seems about right to me considering the more difficult situations he's likely to find himself in and his increasing age.
Finally, Scott Hartnell. Everything I said about Briere (except the massive drop and the age thing) applies to Hartnell... with similar shooting percentage concerns as Giroux. He's only 30 years old though and has been a consistant 20-goal+ guy through his career. I want to say we'll see a drop but I think he'll manage around 20-goals in the goal department which is just fine. The points will drop a bit but we're not looking at the points.
Say an optimistic no goal decrease for Hartnell since he's just entering his 30s.
If everything I've said is reasonable you're looking at an extra 10-goal drop to existing Flyers due to the changing roles. Mind you, I expect Voracek in particular to take fairly big strides (20 goals if he gets PP time is reasonable) but the effects of the trades are bigger than the straight swap of players.
The worst part (for the Flyers) is we're looking only at the offensive side of the game. Richards is a better defensive forward than Giroux (though Giroux is good) and Carter is a whole let better defensively than Briere. What little gains they make in goal may be lost in their team defense being worse next season.
It's hard to believe the Flyers took what was basically a cup-contending team (if they would stop trying to play with goalies like Boucher or Leighton) and dismantled it. I see them like a lot of others, as a bubble team but if Pronger misses time I think they miss the playoffs.
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