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08-27-2011, 12:01 PM
  #86
macavoy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
What are you basing Jagr's numbers on? Not that they're total unreasonable but translation from the KHL is a bit murky since there aren't any good comparables for a guy like Jagr coming to the NHL.

The bigger issue is that Philadelphia lost the heart of their tough opposition ES offense while none of the guys coming in played that kind of role in the NHL. This will result in a loss of scoring efficency across the board as everyone plays a tougher role across the board. The effect on goals against will probably be bigger that the effect on goals for though (As Mathman pointed out they shouldn't expect to have much better goaltending.)
I based my Jagr numbers based on his career NHL numbers. He's been consistently above 70 points even during all of his lousy / bad attitude years, then I lowered them based on age. I think they are conservative given the fact that health & attitude wise he seems to be rejuvinated similar to how Selanne got rejuvinated a few years ago. They would be outlandish if I put 40 goals up there, even though 40 is in the realm of possibility playing with Giroux who put up better numbers than Carter or Richards last year.

But I think you need to work on your analysis skills when trying to refute my post. The entire point of my post was to show that I think Philly wil do worse this year. Except it wasn't as bad as I initially thought, losing 15 goals will have an impact but not nearly as much as losing 50ish which is what it looks like if you think about losing Carter and Richards on the surface.

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