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08-30-2011, 12:01 PM
  #366
MathMan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bsl View Post
MM: I like your logic, and I understand the Math, but some shots are weak and ****, and some are perfectly aimed and unstoppable. No?
Individual shot quality is a real thing (otherwise we wouldn't bother with scoring chances, right?) but on the aggregate, it gets drowned in the mass; a team's total set of shots is not likely to have significantly higher or lower quality than another's.

Likewise, player's shooting percentages trend strongly to their career average. A player with an unusually high shooting percentage for one year is a red flag and is very likely to score less the next year. Likewise, a player with an unusually low shooting percentage for one year is a good trading target -- odds are he'll go back to normal right after.

This goes double for a player's on-ice shooting percentage (his team's overall shooting percentage while he's on).

And no, lack of toughness and grit does not result in low shooting percentage. Low and high shooting percentages though is one of those things we humans insist in trying to explain as more than transient variation.

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