MLD2011 Finals - Eden Hall Warriors vs Regina Capitals
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09-05-2011, 02:30 PM
Join Date: Aug 2006
The biggest advantage that Eden Hall possesses is balance - the team is built to be able to both score and defend at a high level. Regina is a great defensive team, but they lack offensive firepower. If Eden Hall has the lead, Julien can have the team really lock down, secure in the knowledge that Regina doesn't have the offensive game breakers to really break through. Eden Hall, on the other hand, has some serious firepower - which can help if we trail, or help really put the game out of reach if we get a lead of a couple of goals.
Regina has a very weak powerplay, which really makes it a viable strategy for Eden Hall's larger defensemen to freely rough up Regina's smaller forwards.
there are only a handful of defensemen who could play both PP units in the MLD, and Sargent is one of them. Here are the MLD defensemen with at least 400 GP, who averaged at least 20 adj.PPP/80 games:
Seems like Sargent is barely better than Ehrhoff on a per-game basis. And
Ehrhoff kept up that average over 500 games, while Sargent only played 402,
so I think they are basically equals on the powerplay. And of course, Ehrhoff is on Eden hall's second wave of the PP because we believe we have 2 better options in Brian Campbell and Mike O'Donnell. Regina is so dependent on Sargent, that they are forced to play him for the full powerplay.
Steve Sullivan, who once led the league in SHGs and finished Top 10 three times, will come out on the last shift of the PK to feast on a tired Gary Sargent.
b) Lack of offense up front also hurts Regina on the PP just like it does at even strength. Darcy Tucker on the PP?
Regina is relying heavily on some injury-prone players here, particularly Gary Sargent and Jan Erixon.
seventieslord exclusively uses "per game" stats for his injury-prone guys. I prefer to use "per season" stats, but there is nothing inherently wrong with using "per game" stats, so long as you assume the player will be injured for the appropriate amount of time.
So let's see how may games we can expect Gary Sargent and Jan Erixon to miss in this series.
a) Gary Sargent
Over Sargent's regular season career (75-76 to 82-83), he missed a whopping 38% of the available games, playing only 402 of his team's 640 games over this stretch. To be fair, we should remove his final season, when he was basically hanging on by a thread, but then he only played 384 of his team's 560 games, still missing a solid 31% of his team's regular season games.
In Gary Sargent's playoff career, he only played in 20 of the 35 games his team was involved in. In other words, he missed 43% of the playoff games his teams played in over his career.
What does it mean for this series?
If the series goes 7 games,
31% missed would be 2.17 games.
38% missed would be 2.66 games
43% missed would be 3.01 games
On average, Gary Sargent can be expected to miss 2-3 games per 7 game series with injury. When Sargent is injured, Regina's powerplay, already fairly weak, because absolutely impotent.
Note that Eden Hall, by contrast, has 4 strong PP pointment, with Sami Kapanen as a good 5th option in case of injury.
Seventieslord likes to bring up how much ice time Sargent saw when he actually played, but maybe he would have been able to actually stay healthy if he played fewer minutes?
b) Jan Erixon
Over Erixon's regular season career (1983-84 to 1992-93), he missed 31% of his team's regular season games, playing in only 556 of 804 available games.
In Erixon's playoff career, he did play in 58 of his team's 63 playoff games, a very respectable number.
Based on Erixon's regular season career, we would expect him to miss an average of 2 games per 7 game series. He generally didn't miss games in the playoffs, however. I'm not sure how to account for that. I definitely don't think he should get full credit for his "per game" regular season accomplishments when he missed so many games.
Last edited by TheDevilMadeMe: 09-05-2011 at
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