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09-16-2011, 07:04 AM
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Originally Posted by Quicksilver ballet View Post
What do you want to use as a benchmark, what would you consider a legitimate NHL player be, would 200 games played in a career for players drafted 1995 or later be considered an adaquate benchmark?
If you set the benchmark at 200 games then of the 70 players drafted between 16-22 in the years 1995-2004 43 (61%) have played more than 200 NHL games with the average being 301. Now many of these players are still active so if you wait long enough this probably ends up being something like 48/70 (69%).

While I agree with you assertion in the sense that outside of the top five or ten the odds that you get a high impact player do drop sharply, it is still true that mid first rounders have a reasonable chance of being solid NHL players. And it seems that as scouting has gotten more sophisticated those odds are rising.

Now 200 games is realtively modest. At something like 400 games the numbers do drop off. In this group there would be 32/70=46% that will make this threshold. (It is far higher if you include games in the SEL or KHL.)

I think might be fair to say that the chances that a guy like Klefbom has a reasonable NHL career are actually quite good. Even better if you believe the Stu M. has an above average eye for talent.

How does this relate to Gagner? It does in so far as the possibilty that Gagner could be traded for a pick. Personally I would like to see a deal with Phoenix that involves their 1st in 2012 in some sort of package. Phoenix has pressure to win now. They also a huge issue at center, especially if Turris does really want out. A guy like Doan could really be the ideal type of winger to take advantage of Gagner's assets.

I don't think Gagner fits here long term either in the middle or on RW (if he proves me wrong I will happily eat crow). I also think that the 2012 off season is the time for the Oilers to move fully into the next phase of their rebuild and start concentrating on filling in spots at the NHL level with players that are more than place-holders. But two picks in next years top 5-15 would be a tremendous addition to the prospect pool given the exceptional talent that is projected to be in that draft.

Last edited by Fourier: 09-16-2011 at 07:18 AM.
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