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Hmm, it ate my reply.
I would go 48 talls. My 50's are a bit tight on me but I'm 5'8 pushing 190. My belly is 40" around and right now I'm in 38" dress pants and 36" jeans. Length is great, I like them a bit long, although I am 5'8 I have a little longer legs than your average short guy.
Last year I was about 10 pounds lighter, 36" dress pants and 34" jeans, pants fit better, and I could still probably wear them if I was another 10 pounds lighter.
For comparison's sake, a few years ago I was 165-ish, wearing 33-34" dress pants and 32" jean sizes. I tried a pair of 46 Tacklas I found used for $20, but they were a little small. 48 would have been perfect. My belly was probably 35-36" back then.
I also wore Bauer Mediums and they fit pretty good, a little short and lacking protection which is why I switched. They would be too small on me right now though.
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