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09-24-2011, 01:43 PM
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Originally Posted by flountown View Post
Again though, there really isn't as much fluctuation between leagues that the MLB experiences. It would be harder to determine the MLE for hockey with a smaller sample size. You would have to come up with some type of criteria that would give you enough data to work with. If a player plays a game or two in the NHL without a point, that could skew it all...

There is something out there that correlates age/points in juniors to NHL success, that is a pretty neat statistic.

I last saw it on the Winnipeg Jets SBNation site when comparing their pick to Couturier.

Here was the one before that, with a similar chart:

In case you were wondering, the top left-hand corner is empty because there aren't a whole lot of guys who put up a point-per-game at age 16. But the key takeaway is that as you get closer to that top left-hand corner, you're more likely to become an NHL regular. Mark Scheifele projects to play 100 games between now and age 26 - that's perhaps a 25% chance of becoming a real NHL player. Couturier, on the other hand, is almost off-the-chart, and might have a 75% chance of doing the same.

There are obviously other factors here - Scheifele was on a much weaker team, and we have no way of knowing a player's intangibles - but all things being equal, Couturier was a much better pick at the #7 spot. Time will tell if he's the right choice, but you'd better have a damned good reason to play against the odds.

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Last edited by GKJ: 09-24-2011 at 01:49 PM.
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