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09-24-2011, 03:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
No, that isn't what they were arguing... and they certainly don't undervalue HR (it was actually OBP v. SLG). Moneyball was about economizing the game. Where can I get the most bang for the buck. They value OBP not because they viewed it as inherently leading to more runs (though, if you're talking about prospects they felt it was a better indicator of long-term success), but because it was CHEAP compared to SLG. Scouts overvalued the SLG of prospects, so you could get a "better" value based off of OBP.

No one in their right mind EVER thought you could replace Barry Bonds (an extreme example) in his prime with someone else with a high OBP and get anywhere near the same production.

And this goes in cycles. In recent years, OBP has become overvalued... so what have teams started to do? Go after defense.
Barry Bonds led the league in OBP in his prime.

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