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09-28-2011, 08:50 AM
Join Date: Jun 2008
Originally Posted by
The point was to have an objective measurement per game. If you go by the season, it's not fair because one year he played only 17 games.
He was relatively healthy the last two seasons and in the 4 out of 6 seasons since the lockout. Once he missed most of the season, and one he missed 34 games. The other 4 seasons he played more than 80% of the games.
If he scores 48 goals per 82 games and plays 70 actual games, then it comes out to 41 goals. I think expecting this is more than reasonable.
70 may be a little high, but yes that is proper reasoning. You have to look at empirical data, then throw in a dose of your own opinion/prediction.
But just remember this is a "season forecast", not an "82 game forecast". So which piece of data is more relevant? There's got to be a better metric for a player who rarely plays 82 games...
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