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09-29-2011, 01:48 AM
  #67
Beacon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MPF24 View Post
What experts are these? You don't use the #15 pick on a kid who projects to "one day be a good third liner".

I knew this would be the response. This is fan-thinking, aka thinking by someone who can only remember players who made it, but forgets all those who did not.

At #15, a player has worse than 50-50 odds of making the NHL in any capacity as a regular player. This summer I posted the exact statistics from past drafts. If the player drafted at #15 does make it, he's most likely going to be a garbage role player, laughably far from the top-6. The odds of being a top-6 forward after being drafted at #15, especially in a weak draft, are remarkably low. I can pretty much guarantee you that no more than 1 out of the 10 players drafted between #11 and #20 in 2011 will be a second liner.

A player drafted at #15 in a weak draft has MAYBE a 1 in 10 chance of being a top-6 forward.

The following are the #15 picks from 1997 to 2007. Of these 11 picks, Radulov is the only one I would call a top-6 player, and he's not proven either. If Wolski left at the same point of his career, people would also sing his praises. In their first two NHL seasons (2006-07 and 2007-08), Radulov had 95 points in 145 games while Wolski had 98 points in 143 games. Not necessarily comparing the two, but just making a point that Radulov wasn't exactly proven.

The other 10 players outright suck.

1997: Matt Zultek
1998: Mathieu Chouinard
1999: Scott Kelman
2000: Artem Kryukov
2001: Igor Knyazev
2002: Jesse Niinimaki
2003: Robert Nilsson
2004: Alex Radulov
2005: Ryan O'Marra
2006: Ty Wishart
2007: Alex Plante
(Players drafted in the last 3 years are too young to be judged, so I always exclude them.)

As you can see, #15 picks don't all become top-6. If you can get a high quality third liner with mid-first rounder, you are far ahead of 90% of the league. Expecting your #15 selection to become a top-6 forward is nothing more than buying into hype only to be disappointed.


Last edited by Beacon: 09-29-2011 at 01:56 AM.
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