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10-03-2011, 10:43 AM
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Originally Posted by b in vancouver View Post
Math Man - I do really enjoy your stats. My question about shooting percentage is whether you see a difference between teams that are in the lead during the game and teams that trail. Or if you ever break it down by period. I don't really look at team shooting %.
Good thought, and you are correct. This has been indeed been studied, and teams that take the lead do tend to shoot less and have better shooting percentage and teams that trail, the reverse, which explains some small amount of the Bruins' percentages.

Which is why statheads break out score-tied and score-close data from the rest, and turns out Boston was pedestrian on puck possession and inordinately fortunate on percentages there as well.

Team shooting percentage is mostly luck and reverts strongly to the mean. Boston is weird; over the last for years they've gone really low-really high-really low-really high, but that's mostly the luck of the draw. Expect their real talent to be somewhere in the middle, along with everyone else. Montreal was second-worst to New Jersey, and tied with the Boston club of last year; even allowing that their shooting talent might be below-average (iffy), this season would still be a massive outlier.

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