Big Trade or Tanking ?
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10-21-2011, 11:00 PM
Join Date: Jul 2007
Originally Posted by
Talks to Goalposts
Cam Barker, who can barely crack Edmonton's lineup these days. The year after, Jack Johnson whose a poor 2nd unit defenseman (doesn't play defense well and notorious lack of hockey IQ).
In 2007 the 3rd pick yielded Kyle Turris who still hasn't established himself in the NHL.
2008 3rd was Bogosian, who hasn't been all that impressive in Atlanta/Winnipeg to date.
The 3rd overall pick doesn't have a history of being a surefire talent.
Top 5 draft picks hold a mystique on this board out of proportion to their true value on this board due to how infrequently Montreal has had them. The truth is that it takes years of sucking to re-coup sufficient talent to even get back into the playoffs, let alone compete.
A tank job in Montreal wouldn't be the one year dip that some are selling here. Once you commit to being that bad there's no going back and you're stuck at the bottom for a few years.
Its way too soon to know how good those players will be. Turris is only 22 years old and you're going to write him off?
As for top five picks being overrated, you're way wrong on this one. Seventieslord (stats guru and mod over in the hockey history section) compiled a list of drafted players and actually calculated (Using HF scale) the number of superstars that have been drafted from 1970-2000 and compared draft position.
With a top 5 pick you have a 23 percent chance at a superstar. That's SUPERSTAR, not good player like say a Kirk Muller, we're talking HOF type player. If you have only 3 top five picks your odds are over 50% that you'll get one. Your odds of getting a 2nd line or 2nd pairing player or better, your odds are 70%.
Conversely if you have a pick in the 11-30th slot your odds of finding a superstar fall to a meagre 3.4 percent. Even if you had TEN picks in the 11-30 slots you still have a 71% chance that you still won't find a superstar. And if your goal is to get a good 2nd line player then your odds in the 11-30 range is about 25%.
You want a full time player who plays maybe 5 seasons of hockey? You have a 92% chance that you'll get one if you draft top five. You've got a 60% chance if you have a pick from 11-30.
So you have about
the chance of finding a superstar from a pool that is 1/6th the size of the 2nd group. And that's just comparing it to 1st rounders. Once you get outside the top 30, those superstars become exceedingly rare.
The draft is extremely linear and there is a huge, huge difference between top five picks and the rest of the draft.
BTW, odds of finding a superstar outside the 1st round? 0.4%.
Originally Posted by
Trade assets for picks and prospects, then turn those picks into good players. Check.
But let Gauthier anywhere near that process? no way.
It won't matter, we won't rebuild and I'm pretty sure we'll turn it around and make the playoffs this year. There's no way we're this bad. I still think we're a postseason team.
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