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10-23-2011, 12:25 AM
  #126
Lafleurs Guy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kriss E View Post
I won't go into a multiquote debate because I know it'll just go around and we'll have page long posts

I think you should actually read your post but look at it differently.
You say they are RFAs, yes, but what makes you think they'll want to re-sign for multiples years passed their UFA time?
You ask why would they even want to leave especially if they see us bringing in top talent, well, if you want to bring in top talent through the draft, it means multiple years of tanking + lucking out on a good draft year.
I've explained this to you already. There's no reason to believe that younger guys are going to walk. Older vets would want to leave and that's about it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kriss E View Post
If it's through trades and signings, then we're not talking about tanking.
'Tanking' doesn't exist. 'Rebuilding' does.

I haven't seen too many people actually advocate for us to intentionally lose and the league would never allow it. It's illegal and the crap would hit the fan if anyone tried it.

Rebuilding is perfectly ethical though. There's nothing wrong with recognizing that you aren't good enough to win a cup with the roster you have and trading for prospects to help you down the road.

When the Flames dealt away Joe N. for Iggy, they immediately became a weaker team. At the end of the day though, it was one step back to take two steps forward. Those kinds of deals make sense.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kriss E View Post
You talk about drafting top 5 and trade for prospects. Who would you trade for prospects? Trust me, I'm on board with this idea of trading some of our guys for top prospects, I just don't think it's doable. I don't think there's many teams calling PG for Gionta. Maybe Cammy, but I'm not they'd be willing to part ways with top prospects for him, not at his cap hit. Plekanec and Gorges are the only two guys that have good value (not counting Price, PK, MaxPac as we'd want them as our core). I would have no problem entertaining some offers for them, but I have a hard time believing we'd be getting the better part of a deal involving them.
Cammy would definitely fetch a good prospect or pick. Markov (if he returns healthy down the stretch and plays well) would also warrant a good return. Pleks and Gionta both have value. And if the right package was there for AK (who I wouldn't necessarily deal away) then I'd do that too.

Gomez won't be traded but that's okay, we can just keep him. He can play with MaxPac. Cole we're probably stuck with as well but that's fine, we can keep some vets too. We don't have to trade away every single vet on the team. We only make deals that make sense for us. And if somebody offers us a ham sandwich for Cammy and that's all we can get... fine, we keep him. We keep him until somebody offers us fair market value or tell them to jump in the lake. We don't make some stupid trade for the sake of it like we did with Gomez and then try to justify it by saying "Well, it was the best offer we got so..." The return must justify what we give up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kriss E View Post
And yes, it would certainly be great if we could get a superstar center out of tanking, but nothing guarantees it. If you told me that within 5 years, we are a sure contender for many years to come, then hey, sign me up. Problem is you can't deliver such a promise or guarantee. So it all sounds good with the happy ending, like a fairy tale, but reality isn't always as pretty.
I never said it guarantees anything and you know this. There is no such thing as a guarantee in hockey.

But we can look at the odds. If you get three top five picks your odds of drafting a superstar are over 50%. And it's almost impossible (esp with our scouting group) to wind up with less than at least one very good player. Odds are we'd wind up with more than one good player if we did this.

And again, we don't even need to rely on finishing low to do this. We can look at the prospects of other clubs who have already been drafted. If our scouts say that Kyle Turris is the one we should go after, then that's what we do. We don't have to try to finish 30th to rebuild. We worry about the returns on our trades and we just play the games. If we make the playoffs with a young roster... great. But no matter what, we hang on to our draft picks and don't deal away for quick fixes in order to make 8th place.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Kriss E View Post
As for the fans, I think it's highly unrealistic to believe the Bell Center would still be packed every night and that the Habs fever around the city would remain the same. It's already noticeable that the craze dropped a bit last year, and it feels the same this year. Now apparently there was plenty of empty seats so far this year, and not every game has yet to be sold out like in previous years. At the end of the day, hockey is a spectacle. If the entertainment is bad, people will stop watching. If the habs were more of what we saw last game, I can tell you I would eventually stop as well, and I'm as big a fan as anybody else. I'm not saying I wouldn't come back running once the habs become entertaining again, but to expect no drop in sales of tickets and merchandise while in a rebuild isn't quite realistic.
A bigger risk is to just keep finishing in 8th place for the next decade. Part of the lack of enthusiasm is that the club has spent all this money on high priced duds. The fans know we aren't really good enough to win anything and that's tough to swallow. Why get excited about paying 200 dollars to go see Scott Gomez cash another paycheck?

The feeling would be completely different (and more forgiving) if we invested in younger hungry players. I can tell you that I watched a lot of Edmonton games last year. Yes, they lost and missed the playoffs but it was FUN to watch. The fans loved it because they were watching a hungry team. It was fun to watch the club develop around dynamic young players.

And look at us. The fans love PK and Max and Price. They are the future. Who are they bored by? The vets. The overpaid FAs and bad trades that we've made.

If we took a serious look at actually building a contender the fans are smart enough to understand this and they're still going to want to watch guys like PK develop.




Quote:
Originally Posted by Kriss E View Post
As I said, you seem to approach the Tanking idea by looking at the very best scenario, getting superstar center, drafting top 5, trading for good prospects, rebuild to be very short, no losses in terms of fans. Sorry, but I don't believe that everything would be as perfect as you make it sound.
You aren't giving me nearly enough credit here and you're making my philosophy sound over simplistic.

Never anywhere have I said that we'd just go out and draft superstar after superstar if we drafted top five consistently. It doesn't work that way. You have a 23-24% chance of drafting a superstar with ONE top five pick. Those odds go up with the more you have.

What I have said is that if you consistently draft top five, the odds are that you will eventually draft a superstar. And along the way it is highly likely that you will draft other good players (Nathan Horton, Kirk Muller) types to help your development. Heck, look at our only top five in 25 years... it's Carey Price who just happens to be the best player on our team and the guy who everyone is hoping will lead us to the cup someday.

Moreover, I've said that we shouldn't just rely on the draft. It's the return on picks and prospects via trades that we should look at as well. By doing this you accelerate the rebuild process.

It's not as simple as... draft top five three times, get Crosby, Malkin and OV. I've never said this and I don't believe it. I simply believe that we can get better players in the top five than anywhere else and we don't do enough of this. We don't trade for picks or prospects and as a result, don't get the top end talent that we've always needed to win a cup.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bsl View Post
LG read my post again, I think you rushed it. I said that we will likely NOT get a top 3 game changer in the next 3 years, but that we still have a cup window.
I know.

What I'm asking you is... do you realistically think we can win a cup without a top game changer? I don't think we can so I don't see how you come up with a three year window here.


Quote:
Originally Posted by bsl View Post
Yes it's true, and you know I agree with you on this, a top 3 game changer would bring us much closer to the cup, but it's not going to happen soon. Therefore let's do everything we can the next 3-4 years to win a cup without one. It may be possible.
This is what I have a problem with here though...

I don't think it's possible. Not with the club we have now. We're a playoff team yes. But a cup winning caliber team? I don't see it.

I think we need top end talent (that we don't have) to do this. And I don't see how we do it other than dealing for picks and prospects and/or drafting high. Other clubs aren't going to give us their top stars for nothing so we're kind of stuck in this circle of mediocrity that we've been in for over a decade now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bsl View Post
In essence, I'm saying that we are too good to tank right now, so let's shoot for the cup. Bad odds, but we should try.
How do we "shoot for the cup" though? Do you think we should trade our picks for other clubs vets? Do you think that we're only one player away from a cup? I think we have more problems than just one player. I think we lack size in our top six and aren't tough/big enough. There's just not enough size balance in our lineup. I don't think our D is ready to really compete in a Cup final and I don't think we have an elite scorer to take us anywhere right now.

That's a lot of holes to fill and I think we're better off just recognizing this and starting over and should've done it years ago.

As for this year, okay. You want to see what we can do, fair enough. I'm sure management agrees with you and we'll see how it goes. I have no doubt that we'll play better this year and turn it around. If we're a lock to make the playoffs by the deadline, fine... see how it goes. But, if we're fighting for 8th place and not sure if we're even going to be there... I'd prefer they just pull the plug and forget about it. It's way past time we do this and this would be the perfect opportunity to finally get serious about trying to build a winner.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bsl View Post
You are correct, we do not have the best core, but we have a young core that is good. I never said we'd win the cup with it, I'm saying that we should try to win it with this young and excellent core. The odds are not great, but it is not impossible either.
Keep the young core and get more youth to go along with it. Its the youth that we're excited about anyway, not the vets.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carey Price View Post
"Tanking" is an HF concept and doesn't exist in the real world let alone for a team spending to the cap ceiling.

I can see a team taht is bottom 5 in February dumping a lot of vets to help the future, but that's not "tanking".

I'd like somebody to show me an NHL example of a team "Tanking" Rimouski with Crosby is not an NHL example.
'Tanking' meaning intentionally losing? No. It doesn't exist. But rebuilding does.

Rebuilding (trading away vets for picks and prospects and playing those younger players) is not a fictional concept. Ted Leonsis of the Washington Capitals gave a ten point rebuilding program that has been posted here many times. They had a decent team that was playoff capable but not cup capable. They actually went out and did something about it. It was an intentional rebuild where they systematically traded away vets like Jagr and rebuilt from the ground up.


Last edited by Lafleurs Guy: 10-23-2011 at 12:31 AM.
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