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10-27-2011, 12:40 AM
  #184
seventieslord
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Seventies' 70s Defensemen Analysis, as promised

These are the 13 defensemen from MLD2011, who played most of their careers in the NHL in the 1970s, and here are some stats and facts about them:

Player GP TOI/G peak TOI ESTOI/G
GIBBS, BARRY D 792 25.17 26.75 21.14
SARGENT, GARY D 402 25.11 26.66 20.03
GUEVREMONT, JOCELYN D 571 24.56 25.86 19.82
TALLON, DALE D 510 24.26 24.37 19.42
MURDOCH, BOB D 757 23.69 25.76 20.04
MANERY, RANDY D 582 23.63 24.13 19.11
BROWN, ARNIE D 681 22.93 23.2 20.12
MARSHALL, BERT D 868 22.46 23.44 18.88
PLAGER, BOB D 615 22.41 23.59 19.09
BLADON, TOM D 610 21.32 22.04 17.23
SMITH, RICK D 687 20.81 23.39 18.11
LEWIS, DAVE D 1008 19.85 20.98 17.33
HUTCHISON, DAVE D 584 16.7 18.73 15.17

- peak TOI/GP = average icetime in the player's most flattering consecutive six-year period.

- all TOI figures include post-expansion only, which means Arnie Brown and Bert Marshall miss having a few seasons properly captured.

As you can see, Gibbs leads in all TOI categories, despite being 3rd in GP.

Player Recognition
GIBBS, BARRY 1972 13th AS, ASG. 1973 11th AS
SARGENT, GARY 1978 9th nor, 12th AS, 1976 USA 2nd mvp, 1980 ASG
MURDOCH, BOB 1975 11th AS, ASG
BLADON, TOM 1977 14th AS, ASG, 1978 ASG
TALLON, DALE 1971 ASG, 1972 ASG, 1972 SS camp
BROWN, ARNIE 1967 11th AS
GUEVREMONT, JOCELYN 1972 SS camp, 1974 ASG
MANERY, RANDY 1973 ASG
MARSHALL, BERT NIL
PLAGER, BOB NIL
SMITH, RICK NIL
LEWIS, DAVE NIL
HUTCHISON, DAVE NIL

- recognition: short list of the seasons in which the player earned some recognition, sorted in order of overall prestige.

It's hard to argue that Gibbs' cabinet of trophy shares is less impressive than any of these other players.

Player 1 1-450 1-550 1-650 2 2-450 2-550 2-650 3 3-450 3-550 3-650 sum
GIBBS, BARRY 9 5 1 0 9 5 1 0 10 6 1 0 47
MURDOCH, BOB 3 3 1 1 5 5 2 1 7 7 3 1 39
MARSHALL, BERT 0 0 0 0 5 3 3 1 10 5 3 2 32
PLAGER, BOB 1 1 0 0 4 4 1 0 8 6 2 0 27
BLADON, TOM 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 4 4 3 3 22
MANERY, RANDY 2 1 0 0 5 4 0 0 5 4 0 0 21
GUEVREMONT, JOCELYN 2 0 0 0 4 1 1 1 5 2 2 2 20
BROWN, ARNIE 1 1 1 0 3 2 0 0 5 3 3 0 19
LEWIS, DAVE 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 19
SARGENT, GARY 3 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 3 1 0 18
SMITH, RICK 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 4 2 2 2 12
TALLON, DALE 2 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 3 1 0 0 10
HUTCHISON, DAVE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 2

- 1, 2, 3 = number of seasons spent as a #1, #1/2, #1/2/3 defenseman based on icetime regardless of team win%

- 1-450, 1-550, 1-650, 2-450, 2-550, 2-650, 3-450, 3-550, 3-650 = number of seasons spent as a #1, #1/2, #1/2/3 for a team that meets that win% threshold

- total: the simple sum of the above numbers. basically it makes being a #1 for a sub-.450 team worth three points, with three bonus points for meeting each three win% threshold. A #2 for a poor team would thus earn two points, and two bonus for each season meeting each threshold and so on. You may interpret the results as you wish; this total is one suggested way.

Gibbs easily leads in more categories than anyone else, and IMO has the best overall results.

Player beat ATDer beat by nobody spread
BLADON, TOM 12 2 10
GIBBS, BARRY 9 2 7
BROWN, ARNIE 9 4 5
MURDOCH, BOB 3 0 3
GUEVREMONT, JOCELYN 4 1 3
TALLON, DALE 4 3 1
PLAGER, BOB 4 4 0
SARGENT, GARY 2 2 0
SMITH, RICK 3 3 0
MANERY, RANDY 0 6 -6
MARSHALL, BERT 0 8 -8
LEWIS, DAVE 4 13 -9
HUTCHISON, DAVE 0 15 -15

- beat ATDer: number of instances of playing exclusively with one team for 40+ games with an ATD2011 defenseman, and exceeding them in TOI

- beat by nobody: number of instances of playing exclusively with one team for 40+ games with a defenseman not drafted as of cumulative selection 1580, and being exceeded by them in TOI

- spread: the former minus the latter

Gibbs completes his streak of being the only player to look good by every metric by finishing 2nd here. It should be noted that Bladon was in an interesting situation in Philadelphia, where the top-5 defensemen often were within 2 minutes of eachother so he often topped Dupont or Van Impe by 30 seconds or so. Gibbs was topping ATDers by 3 minutes. His only two instances in the second column are from his last season.

conclusion: Gibbs was the best 1970s NHL defenseman selected in the MLD. You'd have to massively overstate the value of Lewis' higher GP total, Murdoch's 1975 season as #1 on a suddenly excellent LA team, Marshall and Lewis' combined three years as the #2 on an excellent surging Isles squad, or Bladon's slightly misleading TOI compared to his ATD teammates, to disagree.

(as for others, Al Hamilton was definitely not better and as for Babinov, your guess is as good as mine, he did make USSR's top-13-16 defensemen five straight years from 1975-1979 but was not an all-star and got no MVP votes, but he was usually on the national team so 5th-10th in USSR is a good starting point, now try to translate that to NHL value if you dare)

If you believe that the 70s were already grossly overrepresented as of the start of the MLD, then it does not have to follow that Gibbs is a legitimate #1-2 MLD defenseman. You could simply claim that even though he was the best left in this decade, there were plenty of better options, even the 5th-10th-best guys left from other decades.

However, if you believe that all eras were reasonably represented in proportion to their competition quality as of the start of the MLD, then the "next best" of each era would be the guys who are deserving #1-2 MLD defensemen. Gibbs is exactly that. I see no reason to believe any era was particularly over- or under-represented heading in.

I had fun doing this. It is a good thing I am already settled down with a wife.


Last edited by seventieslord: 10-27-2011 at 12:45 AM.
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