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10-27-2011, 06:04 PM
Join Date: Sep 2005
Originally Posted by
Because it takes 2-4 years for a player to reach his potential once he cracks the NHL. Is MDZ at his potential? Is Stepan? Was Anisimov at his potential as a rookie or even now? How many years did it take Staal to reach his potential?
People need to follow what they are reading more closely. You hear the scouts say that someone will be ready for NHL in 2-3 years, and that this player is projected to be, say, a second liner, and people just assume that in 2-3 years, the kid will be a second liner. That's NOT what scouts mean.
It means that in 3 years, the player will be ready for bottom-6 duty where he is spotted in the right situations where it will be hard to fail. Then it will take another 2-4 years to actually reach his potential.
Look at Callahan. He was drafted in 2004. He reached his potential last season. Prior to that, he was a 0.5 point tweener.
Look at Staal: the first two years in the NHL, he was totally inept offensively and not as perfect defensively as he is now.
Just because a player cracks the NHL, doesn't mean he's reached his potential. In fact, most rookies are being played only in "the right situation", which would never be done with vets. That's fine, but you have to also understand that these rookies will have to improve as the years go on. And the end of this improvement doesn't happen until the MID-20s.
Think about it: when does a player's "prime" begin? Is it at the age of 20-21? Of course not. It's in his mid-20s.
The idea that the first year a rookie makes the team, he'll be ready to replace Gaborik or even Callahan, is utterly preposterous unless that rookie is an absolute superstar.
So you expect Chris Kreider to be playing 8 minutes a game as a bottom feeder next year?
Whether they've peaked or not the vast majority of the Rangers core players have taken their roles within a year of making the NHL. MDZ really being the only one who regressed with a severe sophomore slump. That said, knock on wood, he's look fairly solid focusing on his defensive play this season and considering offense secondary, rather than the other way around.
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