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10-27-2011, 11:03 PM
  #75
Haute Couturier
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
And getting a bigger contract for the following RFA seasons. I already addressed that point just a few posts ago. I don't believe keeping him down favors the Flyers payroll structure the way you envision.

Let's just assume that keeping him up makes no impact on his development one way or the other:

Path A:

18 - 80 GP, 15 G, 20 A, 35 P
19 - 80 GP, 20 G, 30 A, 50 P
20 - 80 GP, 25 G, 35 A, 60 P

Career: 240 GP, 60 G, 85 A, 145 P

Path B:

19 - 80 GP, 20 G, 30 A, 50 P
20 - 80 GP, 25 G, 35 A, 60 P
21 - 80 GP, 30 G, 45 A, 75 P

Career: 240 GP, 75 G, 110 A, 185 P

Who is in line for the bigger pay-day? Path B. That's expected the trade-off for pushing off his ELC by a year -- getting hooked for a bigger cap hit after you have to deal with Giroux, Schenn, Meszaros, and Read. Is this alternative really any better? Unless the Flyers plan to dispense of Couturier after 3 years, there's no kick-back. In the long run you have to pay for what you're getting.

So for me, that makes it a purely hockey decision. Has Couturier shown he belongs in the NHL? Yes. Is Couturier showing that he can help the team? Yes. Is there any evidence that keeping Couturier with the team is hurting his potential? No.

Sure, he'd be getting more ice time in Juniors, but who is to say that makes up for the NHL experience, coaching, training and maturity that is coming to him right now? In this case, I defer to professional judgement.
I think Plan B is absolutely the better alternative because they would be getting far more value out of his ELC which is important under the cap. Would you rather have a 50 point player making nearly $1.4M or a 4th liner that sees no PP time and might be lucky to hit 30 points?

The other crucial piece of information is that had they delayed his contract a year he would be restricted the year Briere's contract finally comes off the books. So there would be a huge chunk of breathing room in that scenario even if he costs a bit more. The higher cost down the road would be justified.

Besides there is no guarantee there would be a huge difference in salary if he was signed at 21 rather than 20. As we see with contracts like the one handed out to JVR, players sometimes end up being paid on potential. At least Couturier could be more proven at 21 and more deserving of a bump in pay.

Sorry, but when it comes to anything involving the cap I would look to the opposite of any decision Holmgren makes.

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