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11-08-2011, 07:19 PM
Damaged Goods
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Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
The Flyers goal totals are being heavily skewed by the Ottawa, Winnipeg, and Columbus games. They scored 43% of their goals in those three games.
The Flyers also allowed 30% of their goals in those games. Clearly the defense and goaltending are not 4.33 goals against bad against teams like those, nor is the Flyers goal-prevention 3.1 goals against bad vs. the entire NHL. If you are going to factor goals-for regression against the Flyers, it would only be fair to consider goals-against regression as well.

Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
Clearly the offense is not 4.00 goals per game good and is probably a lot closer to the 2.90 goals per game they've averaged in the rest of their games.
2.91 games per game is still pretty damn good, especially when you consider that you're skewing the sample by removing the Flyers best offensive performances. But that average would still put the Flyers just decimals points behind 9th place in the NHL this year and in 10th place last year.

Furthermore, the 24 goals in 3 games against Ottawa, Winnipeg and Columbus that you are chucking out represent an impressive offensive achievement. You may be tempted to dismiss it entirely as evidence of "AHL defense," but those teams are not surrendering 8 goals a night to just anyone. Columbus gives up 3.33 goals per game to the rest of the NHL, Ottawa gives up 3.36 and Atlanta gives up 2.77. These teams have played 13 and 14 other clubs besides the Flyers, so just about everyone else has had the chance to score on them too.

Even if the Flyers had not beaten so hard on those sub-par defenses, a 4 goals-per-game output against those three teams would give the Flyers 3.14 goals-per-game so far this year, good for 3rd in the NHL.

Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
I wouldn't count on them to have the 2nd best goal differential at the end of the year.
Neither would I, but that's simply banking on reversion to the mean. It does not imply that a 9th place standing in Points% has been luck-driven. The Flyers goal differential could sag all the way down to 9th without a 9th-place standing being considered "lucky" on that basis.

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