DEBATE: Is the cap going down next season and how much? (And can we afford Parise?)
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11-15-2011, 01:14 AM
Sent to HF Minors
Join Date: May 2007
Current cap hits.
Anaheim, Boston, Buffalo, Calgary, Chicago, Columbus, Edmonton, Los Angeles, Montreal, New Jersey, Rangers, Philly, Pittsburgh, San Jose, Tampa, Toronto, Vancouver, Washington.
Detroit, Minnesota, St. Louis.
Carolina, Colorado, Dallas, Florida, Nashville, Islanders, Phoenix, Winnipeg.
If the cap is reduced to $56, as some are suggesting, that will devaste the league. All but 8 teams would be in trouble. A full 19 teams whose payroll is presently over $60 would be in absolute hell and would be required to make massive dumps from their roster.
A team like Washington would just have to pass on re-signing Semin. Other teams like Vancouver and Pittsburgh, which are right up against the cap and have no major salaries coming off the books, would be forced to dump some of their top players just to squeeze into the $56 payroll.
Vancouver and Pittsburgh wouldn't need to dump a single $4 player. They would need to get rid of TWO such players, and replace them with someone making no more than half a million.
Almost every team would be in disarray. The exceptions are mostly bad teams. Only Phoenix, Nashville and Dallas are last year's playoff teams.
- Dallas already lost Richards, which is what put them under the $56.
- Nashville signed a contract raising Rinne's salary by over $3.5 next year and they will need to give the same raise to Suter to keep him. Those two will put Nashville in cap trouble.
As you can see, it is impossible for the cap to be dropped $8 without destroying most playoff squads. Teams would have to dump their second, and even first liners, just to squeeze into the $56 salary cap. It just ain't happening. It's not good for the league. It's not good for the owners.
The cap is not going down $8. In fact, it's not even going down $4 to $60 because that too would put 2/3 of the league over the cap, creating a total havoc.
One of 3 things will happen:
1) Revenue will go up so much that even though the percentage shared with players is lower, the actual cap remains about the same.
2) Revenue will not make up enough of the cap reduction, but the owners will agree to make the revenue share drop gradual, allowing the cap not to rise until revenue increases so that the current cap level is no more than whatever percentage owners are willing to share.
3) The cap goes down a few million, but it is combined with salary rollbacks along with allowing teams to remove dead-weight like Drury and Redden.
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