AAA 2011 Ambrose O'Brien semi-finals: #2 Regina Pat Habs vs. #3 Philadelphia Sting
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11-18-2011, 02:58 PM
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Philadelphia, PA
It's unfortunate that the first time I actually have time to analyze is voting day, but I'm going to do a very rough breakdown of player by player.
Brown vs. Osborne: Brown's best years came in war years, which discounts what he did. I'll say Brown is probably a little more physical, but Osborne is a better defensive player considering he was actually used on a very good shutdown line, where's Brown was "decent". Osborne's adjusted PPG is .4755. Also consider that's with a good amount of time being spent on a 3rd line as a checker. Brown's adjusted PPG(when you adjust his games played) is .496. Considering difference in era and Osborne's edge in defensive play, I'll give him a slight advantage here considering he got those totals playing in a defensive role for the most part.
Roach vs. Polupanov: I was actually going to take Polupanov, but you beat me to it. His scoring finishes are pretty impressive, and I'll give him the advantage here offensively. Neither looks like he brings much in terms of intangibles.
O'Neill vs. Robinson: O'Neill definitely has the advantage in grit and physicality, being one of(if not the) best power forwards in this draft. In terms of offense, I think there's an obvious advantage to O'Neill. His peak offense, and adjusted PPG(.655 to .499) is way better. Advantage O'Neill.
Overall, I think 1st lines are very close. The gap between Roach and Polupanov is very close to the gap between O'Neill and Robinson. It depends on which gap you perceive is bigger and if you believe Osborne is better than Brown(which I believe he is).
Prospal vs. Daze: Overall, Prospal is probably the better player. Better career adjusted PPG(Daze was the better goalscorer, Prospal the better playmaker) and Prospal did it for longer. I actually really underrated Vinny Prospal. He's a very good 2nd liner here.
Davidson vs. Bonk: It's near impossible to compare these two, so I'll leave it at Davidson is better offensively, and Bonk is better at everything else.
Mullen vs. Mallen: Difficult comparison. I'll say Mallen is probably better offensively, but I picked Mullen for his consistent production and fairly high PPGA on ice, indicating he probably had some needed two-way ability.
Smith vs. Reid: Smith is better offensively, Reid is better defensively. I think the gap between the offense is bigger than the gap between the defense. Smith's adjusted PPG is .502(with games adjusted) and Reid's is .363. But, do note that Smith played in the post-war era, which discounts his PPG a bit. Smith also has this quote, which I like:
"Pound for pound, he is one of the best players in the NHL." This is the praise that Dick Irvin gave Kenny Smith as he watched him check his Canadiens star Maurice Richard in the 1945-46 Stanley Cup finals.
Hannan vs. Clement: Clement is the better player.
Beaudro vs. DeBlois: I hoped that I would get around to doing a bio for Beaudro, but didn't get the chance. He wasn't much of an offensive player, and DeBlois is better there. DeBlois is probably the better overall player.
McDonald vs. Horeck: Not sure how you're getting Horeck and McDonald are equal offensively. McDonald's adjusted PPG is .764, and Horeck's is .517 when adjusted for game totals. McDonald isn't really suited as a 4th liner, but he's there to help out my PP and chip in timely goals when possible. McDonald is easily the better player in a vacuum, but who's the better 4th liner is up for debate.
Horcoff vs. Ingarfield: Before I even adjust for games played for Ingarfield, Horcoff already has the superior PPG .668 to .574. When I would adjust for games, the difference would be even larger. Ingarfield was more of a checking forward, which could be a source of lower PPG. Ingarfield is probably better defensively. They're close.
Sabourin vs. McCarty: Two very gritty players. Both solid two-way players. McCarty is the grittier of the two. In terms of offense, Sabourin's adjusted PPG before I adjust for games is .539 and McCarty's .416. Meaning once games were adjusted, it would probably just be a slight advantage to Sabourin. Overall, 2 very good 4th liners in this.
Henderson vs. Bowman: Bowman has the better all star record for sure. Henderson provides a decent amount of offense, 4x top 16 among defensemen with %s of 77, 63, 60, & 48. Bowman's offense is pretty much nothing. Bowman is still the better overall player because of all star record.
Kuvers vs. Makarov: It's difficult to decide which was better offensively, which is the main job of both of them. I'll leave it at these are two very good offensive defensemen that play the same role.
Kuchevsky vs. Fowler: Difficult comparison. Fowler had a very short career, but up good #s as a defenseman that was sometimes a "utility forward", whatever that means. I take it as his finishes aren't as impressive as they seem. Kuchevsky offers little in terms of offense, but was a 3x Soviet 1st Team All Star, twice getting in ahead of Nikolai Sologubov, who is a high ATD selection. That's more of a matter of Sologubov being too high, but I'll take Kuchevsky because Fowler just doesn't really impress me.
Paladiev vs. Quenneville: Two similar players, good defensive defensemen with a little bit of offense. Paladiev's all star wins get him the nod here over Quenneville's quiet effectiveness.
MacIver vs. Hardy: MacIver is better offensively(significantly), adjusted PPG .534 to .322, but Hardy is the better all-around player in a vacuum. MacIver's here for his offense and is the better PPQB, but Hardy is the better ES and PK player.
Harris vs. Wiebe: Serve the same purpose, Harris brings a little bit offfense to Wiebe's basically none. But, Wiebe's small all star voting record is better than anything Harris has.
Casey vs. Collins: I wouldn't even know where to begin.
Maniago vs. Zinger: Call them even I guess.
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